🗳️ Window to the Walz

Hi Intriguer. A month ago today, Republicans were preparing to nominate Donald Trump as their candidate for president at their national convention in Milwaukee. A few days later, on July 13th, Trump was shot by a would-be assassin in Pennsylvania. The following weekend, President Biden became the first sitting president since LBJ in 1968 to drop out of a re-election race.

I’ll just say that again, a month ago.

What I’m saying is, with 88 days still to go, anyone who tells you they know who’ll win in November simply does not. There are still plausible paths for each candidate to win comfortably or for it to be the closest election since Bush v Gore in 2000.

So our work to understand how the Republican and Democratic tickets view the world and how the world views them continues. This week, Kristen and I explore Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz’s time in China and whether he can help Kamala Harris tame the ‘uncommitted’ voting movement.

- John Fowler & Kristen Talman in Washington D.C

Listen to the full Election Intrigue podcast in your browser by using the audio player below, or by subscribing to our podcast feed.

Tim Walz and China: Will Republican attacks on the VP pick’s past stick?

When Vice President Kamala Harris called Minnesota Governor Tim Walz to ask if the 60-year-old wanted to be her VP pick, he didn’t answer the phone. Apparently, she had to call twice because the no-caller ID left Walz hitting ignore on his future boss.

So, what to make of Tim Walz? The alcohol and coffee-abstaining governor spent 24 years in the Army National Guard before being elected to Congress in 2006, defeating a six-term Republican incumbent. While in Congress, Walz had an ‘A’ rating from the NRA but has become more liberal since being elected as Minnesota governor in 2018.

Republicans are still testing out attack lines against Walz, including questioning his military service record and his ties to China, while calling him “dangerously liberal.” There’s also been criticism from American Jewish groups (probably because Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro wasn’t picked), and of course from former President Trump, who in a fundraising email said “[Walz will] unleash HELL ON EARTH.”

So we dug through his voting record and talked to our sources on whether Walz swings the race either way:

A summary of our conversation:

1. Why not Shapiro? Color at least one of us (John) surprised that Vice President Harris didn’t choose Josh Shapiro. At least one of us (John) thinks Shapiro is hands down the best politician of his generation from either side - his speech on Tuesday night introducing the Harris-Walz ticket was nothing short of electric, and gave serious Obama 2008 vibes. And that might have been the problem - reporting suggests Shapiro came across as overly ambitious in conversations he had with Vice President Harris, and that her team were worried his political skills might overshadow hers. Whatever the reason, it won’t be the last time you hear his name.

2. Walz’s China ties will be a big talking point. In 1989, Walz joined a volunteer program to teach American history and English at Foshan No. 1 High School in southern China. Later, he began organising yearly summer educational exchanges to China, a program he estimates took him to China more than 30 times. So, is he a China hawk or a Panda-hugger? The answer is probably neither - he’s clearly fond of the country and has said the US and China don’t need to be adversaries, but he also has a long history of advocating for human rights in China. Nevertheless, Republicans clearly sense this is an issue they can attack, with Richard Grenell (who’s likely to be given a senior foreign policy role in a future Trump administration), posting to Twitter/X "Communist China is very happy, no one is more pro-China than Marxist Walz."

3. Does the VP pick even matter? The common wisdom says as long as the vice presidential candidate can plausibly take over should something happen to the president, then it doesn’t really matter who’s on the bottom of the ticket. Regardless of your political persuasion, as a governor of a large state and former congressman, Tim Walz clearly passes this test. But we think this year Walz might draw more focus than vice presidential candidates usually do if for no other reason than he is a less delicate political figure for Republicans to attack.

4. “Uncommitted” voters are a problem for the Harris-Walz ticket. Walz has called for a ceasefire and has said that voters threatening to abstain from voting due to President Biden’s support for Israel is a good example of civic engagement. That might reassure some “uncommitted” voters, but we expect the Israel-Gaza war to continue to be an issue for the Democratic ticket. For example, in the last 24 hours, Harris has admonished pro-Palestinian protestors at a rally, met privately with leaders of the “uncommitted” movement, and her national security advisor, Phil Gordon, announced that Harris “does not support an arms embargo on Israel.” Can Harris walk this extremely fine line for the next ~90 days?

Listen to the full conversation in your browser by using the audio player above, or by subscribing to our podcast feed below.

Where in the world is…

• President Joe Biden is headed later this evening to Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, with the First Lady after meeting with Governor Josh Green of Hawaii and last year’s World Series winners, the Texas Rangers (that’s baseball for the non-sporting folks 😉).

• Secretary of State Antony Blinken is attending meetings and briefings at the Department of State.

• Republican nominee Donald Trump held what he called a General News Conference at 2:00pm EST at Mar-a-Lago, Palm Beach.

• Vice President Kamala Harris is holding a campaign rally with VP pick Tim Walz in Detroit on Thursday before traveling to Phoenix, Arizona.

Papers of the world

Walzing around the World

Unlike when Kamala Harris took the presidential nominee reins and outlets reported that her foreign policy was virtually unknown, Tim Walz has a richer international history that foreign outlets quickly picked up and reported on.

Here’s how the world has interpreted his appointment —

🇭🇰 Tim Walz’s personal China history not expected to lead to big shift in US policy - South China Morning Post, Hong Kong

• Intrigue’s take:  This take seems to be at odds with many takes in the US media and, ironically, probably closer to the truth.

🇮🇱 American–Jewish Groups React to Harris' VP Pick Tim Walz on Strict Party Lines - Haaretz, Tel Aviv, Israel

• Intrigue’s take: Haaretz, the moderate Israeli paper, reported that American-Jewish groups were split over Walz’s selection. Left-wing Jewish groups lauded the decision, while right-leaning groups said Walz hasn’t done enough for Israel after October 7th.

🇺🇦 Harris VP pick Governor Tim Walz good news for Ukraine - Kyiv Independent, Kyiv, Ukraine

• Intrigue’s take:  Walz’s gubernatorial state is home to Northrop Grumman and BAE Systems facilities, which, under his tenure, have produced military-grade parts eventually shipped to Ukraine for its war efforts against Russia.

🇦🇪 Tim Walz's moderate Middle East views could be olive branch to voters concerned about Gaza - The National, Abu Dhabi, UAE

• Intrigue’s take: For “uncommitted” voters, it is yet to be seen if Walz will ease their worries and lead some to vote Democrat in November. Certainly, it appears to be a safer pick for the pro-Palestine base than Pennsylvanian Governor Shapiro, who had a ‘Genocide Josh’ campaign launched against him the previous week.

NEWS CLIPPING OF THE DAY

A young Tim Walz made his way to China in 1989, mere months after graduating from undergrad. He managed to learn Chinese but struggled with tones (a very relatable problem for those who’ve studied Chinese!). Even still, he seemed to make a good enough impression in Foshan as he told the Northwest Nebraska section that he was given more gifts than he could possibly bring home — "No matter how long I live, I’ll never be treated that well again.”

What we’re reading

• Harris and Walz Can Remake U.S. Foreign Policy

• Gov. Tim Walz doesn't own a single stock

• Tim Walz on China - China Talk

• Walz pick shines spotlight on U.S. VP's possible foreign policy role

• Tim Walz calls Viktor Orbán a dictator. For JD Vance, he’s a role model.

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