Hi Intriguer. Donald Trump will be America’s 45th and now 47th President. He brings with him a Republican Senate majority and perhaps a House majority as well. And if one of Trump's first calls with a foreign leader, Zelenskyy, is any indication, Musk will be joining, even if only in an unofficial capacity. Couple those things with a 6-3 majority on the Supreme Court and a far more advanced plan to staff key government roles with Trump loyalists and I think you could make an argument to say President Trump 2.0 will have the most power of any US President since Lyndon Johnson in mid-1960s when Democrats controlled Congress and benefitted from the very liberal Warren Supreme Court.

During the ‘Biden interregnum,’ Trump consistently griped about how often his will was thwarted by ‘disloyal’ bureaucrats, military leaders, and even his own advisers during his first term. Trump will not make the same mistake again and I fully expect him to staff his administration with folks ready, willing, and able to implement his agenda from day one. That’s how winning an election works.

Despite the president-elect’s considerable power, I still expect the next four years to be chaotic. Many former staffers say Trump is reflexively contrarian—he relies heavily on his instincts when making decisions and regularly changes his mind. His first administration leaked like a kindergartener's juice box in a backpack and while I expect his second administration to be more professional in that respect, Trump’s leadership style is bound to bruise egos and thwart ambitions. The military leadership will prove the most difficult to bend to his will (though nothing’s impossible) and that will frustrate Trump, and of course, the liberal-leaning media will relentlessly focus on Trump’s gaffes — excuse me, “The Weave”.

But there can be no doubt America chose Donald Trump. It would be a mistake for Democrats to explain away this result as an aberration like they did his victory in 2016. While the battleground states were still decided by razor-thin margins — Trump won Wisconsin by less than 30,000 votes out of ~3.4 million cast, and Michigan by about 80,000 votes out of ~ 5.5 million votes cast — he is the first Republican candidate to win the popular vote (50.7% v 47.7%) since 2004.

Whether you love him, tolerate him, or despise him, over the last eight years, Trump has remade the Republican Party in his own image and he has done that by connecting with a diverse range of American voters and their concerns. Whatever the next four years brings, it won’t be boring.

Some housekeeping: This newsletter is shorter than our usual installments. It’s been a big week at Intrigue HQ and time has run away from us. Kristen and I recorded a wide-ranging conversation this morning offering our observations on why Trump won and what’s coming next. I think you’ll find quite a few reflections that you won’t see anywhere else and I recommend giving it a listen.

Next week will be our final edition of Election Intrigue because… well, the election is over! We hope you’ve found our coverage enjoyable and insightful and a little bit different from the mainstream coverage.

Lastly, we’re hosting a live discussion next Tuesday during which we’ll bring in several regional experts to talk about what a Trump presidency 2.0 means for China, the Middle East, Europe and the rest of the world. We’ll be announcing those experts very soon but I can promise you now that you don’t want to miss it!

- John Fowler & Kristen Talman in Washington DC

Listen to this week’s podcast here, and if you’re not signed up for our flagship daily newsletter, International Intrigue, you can fix that here! 

THE CONVERSATION

Trump 2.0. — some observations on why he was elected and what’s next

Last week’s predictions: Kristen correctly predicted that Donald Trump would win; John whiffed big time, and here are three quick reasons why:

1. “I think Harris is going to win, for a few reasons. The reality is that Trump has hurt Republicans in elections ever since 2016. And this time, unlike in 2016, I expect women voters to be decisive.” They were not. Turns out folks are more focused on issues like the economy and feel like abortion can be dealt with state by state (as Missouri did on Tuesday).

2. “I also don’t think the polling is worth much of anything either way, but if you want me to make a case based on polls I’d say I don’t think Trump supporters are being under-polled to the same extent they were in 2016 or 2020 — folks are no longer embarrassed to say they’re voting for Trump.” Wrong! The polls again undercounted Trump’s support. We’ve no time to get into why except to say boy did John embarrass himself by thinking that Iowa poll was something to pay attention to!

3. John thought the fact that the mainstream media was so clearly in the tank for Kamala Harris would sway enough undecideds to her side. The opposite happened and we wonder if the mainstream media’s support of Harris might have helped Trump given the general distrust of elites.

4. “Honestly, I just hope one of them wins by so much that there’s no disputing the result.” Thankfully this one came true.

We discussed all these issues and many many more on this morning’s podcast, including controversial takes like how the Republican Party is really America’s party of diversity despite how the Democrats would like to think about themselves. Did John say anything cancellable? Almost certainly — click below to listen!

FINAL MAP

POL