Hi Intriguer. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell told the House Foreign Affairs Committee this week that China is the US' top challenge, saying the Cold War "pales in comparison." Senior officials and elected officials have been saying the same thing to us at off-the-record briefings and cocktail hours for months.

As I’ve noted before, that view is bipartisan. Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi told me a few weeks ago that he “[has] solid working relationships with a number of my colleagues on the other side of the aisle” because “both Democrats and Republicans understood that bipartisanship would be necessary to meet the challenges posed by the Chinese Communist Party”.

I note this because our podcast this week focused on reporting Kristen has been doing on a looming cut to US diplomats’ pay. No, it’s not an issue that’s going to send average Americans to the barricades, but if there’s bipartisan agreement that China (not to mention Russia or the Middle East) presents a fundamental challenge to US influence around the world, then maybe cutting the pay of the folks tasked with meeting that challenge isn’t the smartest idea?

- John Fowler & Kristen Talman in Washington DC

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The Conversation

US diplomats face pay cut while RFK Jr’s withdrawal could affect overseas voters

A summary of this week’s conversation:

1. Will Israel’s ‘pager attack’ affect the US election? Let’s not bury the lede here - probably not. Neither former president Trump or Vice President Harris have had much joy wedging the other on the Gaza issue. Our sense from conversations and focus groups we’ve been involved in is that most American voters remain supportive of Israel, appalled at the loss of life in general, but the issue remains low on the list of issues they’re worried about.

The Uncommitted Movement officially announced on Thursday that they won’t endorse Vice President Harris, but they also warned against voting for Donald Trump. So they won’t vote for Harris, they think Trump would be an existential threat to the goal of Palestinian statehood, and they refused to endorse a third party candidate. Are they trying to make their issues politically irrelevant? Who’s advising these folks?

2. Could foreign voters swing the upcoming election? Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s back in the news this morning but you didn’t come here for gossip, so we’re focusing on the headaches his defunct campaign for president is causing overseas voters. RFK Jr. remains on the ballot in several key states, and his team is worried he might accidentally pull votes from Donald Trump, whom he's endorsed. Unfortunately for Kennedy, courts in North Carolina and Michigan have already decided that his name will stay on their ballots, but the 2nd District Court of Appeals just agreed to hear RFK’s challenge to Wisconsin’s electoral laws.

Here's where it gets messy for international voters. The 2006 MOVE Act says overseas ballots must go out 45 days before the election. As you read this on Friday, there are 46 days until the election. If states miss that deadline (and it looks like some will), Intrigue understands those states will need to get what’s known as an "undue hardship" extension from the Attorney General, which could turn into a bureaucratic mess.

Why's this a big deal? In 2020, 1.2 million ballots went to overseas voters, including military, diplomats, and expats. 890,000 (~75%) of them were counted. In an election which could be decided by a few tens of thousands of votes in a few key counties, it’s not entirely ridiculous to imagine that these overseas voters could swing the election. This is an issue to watch if (or maybe when) the election result gets litigated in courts.

3. Congress scrambles to avert a cut to State Department pay. US diplomats posted abroad were informed that their salaries would be cut, on average, by 22% starting October 1st. AFSA, the union which represents US diplomats, has taken the unusual step of launching a paid advertising campaign on Meta’s various platforms to raise awareness of the issue.

AFSA has sent a flurry of letters to House and Senate leadership, as well as produced a two-pager with testimonials from US diplomats posted abroad on how a pay cut would impact them. One US diplomat said they would have to postpone starting a family if their cut were slashed, while another told Intrigue their current work-life balance will be “rebalanced” to favor life if the issue isn’t resolved.

We asked Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink how he squared his comments this week that a period of “intense diplomacy,” with China was “more important than ever,” with a potential pay cut for the folks tasked with that diplomacy. Kritenbrink responded that State was working closely with elected members on the Hill to resolve the issue. The media training is strong with that one.

We know that it’s hard to summon much sympathy for diplomats and their pay conditions, but surely one of the lessons of the last 20+ years of US foreign policy is that investing in diplomacy is a lot cheaper than going to war.

Programming note: Next week is the United Nations General Assembly in New York City with 140+ heads of state expected to be in town. We’ll be on the ground giving you all the news and how it will affect the race for the White House. Hit reply and let us know if there’s anything specific you’d like us to investigate.

You can listen to our full conversation by subscribing to our podcast feed below!

Where in the world is…

• President Joe Biden is in Wilmington hosting the leaders of Australia, India and Japan, aka ‘the Quad,’ on Saturday. Then, he is gearing up for a Monday meeting with UAE’s President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed before heading to New York for UNGA on Tuesday.

• Vice President Kamala Harris will likely meet with the UAE President as well on Monday. She’s holding a campaign rally early in the evening in Madison, Wisconsin on Friday.

• Democrat Vice President Nominee Tim Walz is headed to Allentown, Pennsylvania for a campaign rally on Saturday morning.

• Republican nominee Donald Trump cancelled a meeting in Pennsylvania this weekend with Polish President Andrzej Duda. The campaign did not say why.

• Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been in Cairo and Paris this week, meeting with Presidents Sisi and Macron respectively. On Friday, Blinken is joining President Biden’s meeting with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Wilmington, Delaware.

World View

How the world reported a second assassination attempt

The US correspondents of foreign newspapers looking for a day off last Sunday were fresh out of luck as the Secret Service foiled the second attempt on former President Trump’s life since July. Here’s how papers across the globe reported it:

🇫🇷 Trump blames Biden and Harris 'rhetoric' for assassination attempts  - Le Monde, Paris, France

• Intrigue’s take: Le Monde, with a correspondent in Washington, has original, speedy reporting on the US election for a French audience. Their coverage is worth watching out for to see how US events are being framed for a European audience.

🇨🇳 Trump survives second attempted assassination - China Daily, Beijing, China

• Intrigue’s take:  China Daily reported that the attempt “highlights the challenges of keeping presidential candidates safe,” a concern that both Americans and international governments are taking note of.

🇷🇺 US law enforcement identifies suspect in Trump assassination attempt -TASS New Agency, Moscow, Russia

• Intrigue’s take: Russian media and pundits have focused on the attempted assassin Ryan Wesley Routh’s trips to Ukraine in an effort to spread disinformation that Kyiv had a hand in the attempt.

🇪🇸 New attempt to attack Trump reopens questions about the US Secret Service -El Pais, Madrid, Spain

• Intrigue’s take: It’s going to be a tough, scrutiny-filled next few years for the US Secret Service. After the first assassination attempt, US Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle resigned but we’re willing to bet she won’t be the only head to roll in the coming weeks and months.

TWEET OF THE WEEK

We know former Ambassador Murphy annoyed then German Chancellor Angela Merkel by arriving to post via private jet (oh, and for some leaked, unfavorable, cables). So we have two questions was Merkel invited to this going away shindig and if yes, was she able to contain her joy at his departure? Tips, as always, are welcome!

What we’re reading

• Teens are making thousands by debating Trump vs. Harris on TikTok

• Biden wears Trump hat as 9/11 unity gesture, says White House

• The election will be decided here. Pennsylvania is everything.

• Oprah, Swift and Clooney: do celebrity endorsements matter in the US election?

• Teamsters Won’t Endorse a Candidate for President in 2024

Poll