Hi Intriguer. After the chaos of last week at the Democratic National Convention, Kristen and I were left with one nagging question: Why did no one talk about China?

Sure, both conventions didn't talk much about foreign policy, but in her acceptance speech, Kamala Harris at least put a little meat on the bone of her plans for the Middle East and the war in Ukraine. She said almost nothing about China. Some folks are reading into that that the US pivot to Asia is dead, and a Harris administration would focus on Europe and the Middle East first and foremost.

And yet, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has been in Beijing meeting with Xi Jinping this week, and Kurt Campbell—a very senior foreign policy official—has been dispatched to the Pacific Islands Forum. Both trips highlight the importance the US places on projecting its influence across the Indo-Pacific.

So, to redress this lack of public discussion on China in the race for the White House, over the next two weeks, Kristen and I are going to read the tea leaves on how a future Trump or Harris administration might approach China. After all, the most urgent is not necessarily the most important, and while Ukraine and Gaza are no doubt dominating the Presidential Daily Brief right now, the US-China relationship remains the single most consequential relationship in the world.

Listen to our full conversation here, and, of course, if you’re not signed up for our flagship daily newsletter, International Intrigue, you can fix that here!

- John Fowler & Kristen Talman in Washington DC

Podcast summary

Could a 2.0 Trump term send China-US relations spiraling?

Love him or hate him, former President Trump changed the course of US-China relations. Tariffs imposed under his administration have been continued and even strengthened by the Biden administration. In fact, Biden has arguably gone further, signing the CHIPS and Science Act in 2022 and tightening export controls on critical inputs like semiconductors. Now there’s bipartisan signaling that the US will further increase trade restrictions on China, regardless of who wins in November.

By the numbers, the Trump 1.0 administration saw at least 210 ‘public actions’ taken against China: 22 by the Justice Department, 60 by State, 27 by the White House, and 23 by Defense. On top of that, nearly all Confucius Institutes across the US were shut down, and Trump publicly said he would ban TikTok as national security concerns over the app hit the front pages (though he appears to have reversed that position lately).

So how might a Trump 2.0 administration approach US-China relations? As we discussed this week, there’s an argument that Trump 1.0’s approach to China was formed as much by those around the president as it was by the president himself. While we don’t have a good read on who is likely to fill those key positions - think Commerce Secretary, various trade advisers, National Security Adviser, and so on — we’d expect them to hold huge sway over Trump’s China positions. Let’s dive into the rest of our conversation…

A summary of this week’s podcast:

1. Biden’s National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan visits Beijing. Expectations were low for Sullivan’s trip this week, not least because the Chinese released a statement listing their grievances with the US just before Sullivan landed on Sunday night. That’s a tried and true Chinese tactic designed to wrong-foot their counterparts and establish a more confrontational atmosphere ahead of high-level talks. But, somewhat surprisingly, Sullivan’s talks seem to have gone well. According to readouts, there we some strong words exchanged on issues including the South China Sea and Taiwan, but Sullivan’s trip concluded with a surprise public meeting with Xi Jinping (unusual given the difference in their rank) and a rare meeting with Vice Chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, General Zhang Youxia, the first such meeting in years. Overall, China rolled out the red carpet for Sullivan. (Note: we’ll be covering Sullivan’s trip in more detail in tomorrow’s International Intrigue. Make sure you’re signed up here.)

2. Trump changed the political narrative around China. I (John) was a diplomat in China when Xi Jinping secured his second term as General Secretary of the Communist Party in 2017. Even at the time, the diplomatic corps could tell that Xi was different, and there was open speculation that he would not step down after two terms leading China as precedent dictated (spoiler alert: he’s currently two years into his third consecutive term). The year prior, Trump was campaigning for president using China as a punching bag, including memorably saying, “We can’t continue to allow China to rape our country.” This was a jarring change from Obama-era rhetoric, and from the Western consensus that said China was on a path of political and economic liberalization. I’ve never seen a political narrative shift so quickly — in many ways, Trump’s messaging on China paved the way for the bipartisan consensus on China we see in Washington today.
   

3. Trump bolstered his first administration with China hawks, including Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross, Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy Peter Navarro, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, and later, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. That group of advisers was broadly responsible for Trump’s confrontational approach to China, including calling it out for unfair trade practices and its efforts to “cheat the system.” Is Trump himself a China hawk? Maybe, but one of Trump’s strengths (or weaknesses, depending on your point of view) is his ability to pivot on policy quickly and decisively. As noted above, we don’t have a good read yet on who might fill the key China positions in a Trump 2.0 administration, but it's likely that former Acting Director of the United States National Intelligence Richard Grenell and former Pentagon official Eldridge Colby will occupy senior roles within foreign policy. Colby, for his part, has relentlessly advocated for renewed military focus on China which he considers the most critical challenge the US faces. Whoever Trump chooses for those key roles, they’re likely to have outsized influence over the US-China relationship.

You can listen to our full conversation in your browser by using the audio player above, or by subscribing to our podcast feed below!

Where in the world is…

• President Joe Biden is in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, and will receive his daily briefing at 12.30 pm EST.

• Vice President Kamala Harris is on a Georgia bus tour with her Vice Presidential running mate, Tim Walz. The pair stopped in Savannah yesterday (Wednesday), where they sat down for an interview with CNN’s Dana Bash moments ago at 1:45 p.m. EST. Harris will return to Washington at 8:45 p.m. tonight.

• Republican nominee Donald Trump is holding a town hall in La Crosse, Wisconsin.

• Republican Vice Presidential nominee JD Vance addressed the International Association of Fire Fighters in Boston earlier today.

• Secretary of State Antony Blinken is taking a well-earned break and is water skiing with his family on a lake in Vermont. Just kidding, but the Secretary had no public appointments today, so who’s to say he’s not getting an early start on Labor Day festivities?

Chinese papers on 特朗普 (Trump)

How China sees Trump

Enough with how Washington sees Beijing, how does China see the US? We dug up some of the most illustrative headlines to give you a sense for how Beijing, and the Chinese people (though they don’t typically get much of a say in these matters), see the former and potential future president.

This is how Chinese papers have reported on Trump over the years -

🇭🇰 Chinese meme stocks like ‘Trump Wins Big,’ ‘Cutting Ears’ soar as US shooting sours mood - July 15th, 2024, Hong Kong, HK

• Intrigue’s take: After Trump faced an assassination attempt, stock brokers in China went wild, injecting capital into two companies that sound like “Trump wins big” (Wisesoft) and “cutting ears” (Goertek) in Chinese. Overall, however, the markets took a dip as analysts project that the return of Trump could see aggressive policies against Chinese companies.

🇨🇳 Xinhua Commentary: Good riddance, Trump administration and its final madness - January 16th, 2021, Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, China

• Intrigue’s take: Days before Biden took the helm in Washington, Xinhua, the CCP’s official news agency, penned an editorial wishing the Trump administration a goodbye with the sentiment that, well, the 45th wasn’t very well-liked in Beijing and the eastern capital was happy to see him go. The commentary went as far as to say that the politicians were “weak on the inside” and underestimated China’s strength.

🇹🇼 Taiwanese Americans for Harris say Taiwan faces risk under another Trump presidency - August 29th, 2024, Taiwan News, Taipei, Taiwan

• Intrigue’s take: “Taiwanese Americans for Harris,” an official grassroots movement that has emerged in the past month, aims to coalesce support for Vice President Harris. The organization’s national co-chair, Jay Chen, said the group’s reasoning is baked in the thesis that “no president has been more supportive of Taiwan than Biden, and no individual has been more dismissive than Trump.”

🇺🇸 Trump, Vance continue to blast Harris for 'stealing' their policies - August 28th, 2024, Mei Nan Xin Wen, or Southern Chinese Daily News, Houston, US

• Intrigue’s take: One of the first Chinese dailies to be started in the US, Southern Chinese Daily News, lists six US election-related articles as its most popular pieces (out of ten).

Name of the Day

What’s in a name? Well, Trump is such a divisive topic in Chinese media that Japanese media has commissioned op-eds on the topic. The former president and current Republican candidate happens to have two names in Chinese Tèlǎngpǔ (特朗普) and Chuānpǔ (川普). There is some logic to the name-switching madness — in Chinese media originating from Taiwan, Hong Kong, and international outlets, Chuānpǔ (川普) tends to be used. Whereas mainland China typically uses Tèlǎngpǔ (特朗普). As for social media, now that’s a free-for-all where names like "Chuan Jianguo" ( "Trump builds China") and "Dong Wang" (a king who knows everything), are often spotted.

What we’re reading

• South Korea Sees US by Its Side Regardless of Who Is in White House

• Britain’s bankers want Donald Trump back

• Trump and Harris spar over muting debate microphones

• Undercover Joe Biden to become English teacher in new Russian sitcom

• Kamala Harris Wipes Out Trump’s Swing-State Lead in Election Dead Heat

• Harris vs Trump, and the foreign policy shake-up ahead

Poll