🗳️ Ready, Set, Veep

Hi Intriguer. Though it’s often misquoted as an ancient Chinese curse, the first known usage of the phrase “may you live in interesting times” appears in the memoirs of British diplomat Sir Hughe Knatchbull-Hugessen. Sir Hughe was Britain’s Ambassador to China in the late 1930s, and yes, that was his real name.

Sir Hughe would later become best known for having top secret plans for the Normandy invasion stolen from his safe by his Albanian valet and passed to Nazi Germany, but I digress.

Whether the phrase is originally Chinese or manufactured by upper class Brits hoping to appear worldly, it is most certainly a curse for those of us in the news business.

In this week’s podcast, Kristen and I do our best to keep up with our ‘interesting times’ by discussing whether the US presidential election might be behind the escalation in the Middle East, as well as the nice news that Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and former US Marine Paul Whelan are on their way back to the US after 16 months and 5 years in prison in Russia respectively.

You can listen to the full conversation here.

- John Fowler & Kristen Talman in Washington D.C

“Slow news week”: Veep stakes and how a wider war in the Middle East might affect the race

This was supposed to be a slow news week as we all digested a brand new race for president. Sure, there would likely be a little intrigue 😉 around who Vice President Harris would choose to be her running mate, but it’s the start of August and journalists enjoy a beach in the south of France as much (arguably more) than the next person.

You know who has no time for holiday plans? The Middle East. Or Venezuela. Or Russia’s desire to meddle in the election. Or Donald Trump at the National Association of Black Journalists in Chicago. The list goes on.

We didn’t discuss Trump’s performance yesterday in this week’s podcast as there’s no foreign policy angle (here’s Politico’s take if you’re curious), but the rest of the week’s happenings were all fair game.

A summary of our conversation:

1. The US intelligence community released a briefing to journalists warning of foreign disinformation and efforts to disrupt the US election. There was nothing groundbreaking in the warning, but we discuss the different motivations China, Russia, and Iran might have in influencing the race.

2. The Venezuelan election went how everyone expected — the opposition probably won but Maduro isn’t giving up power. We don’t expect the result will have much impact on the US race, chiefly because Washington has tried and failed to pressure him from office before. The US won’t want to repeat that mistake because Maduro’s longevity makes it look weak. Republicans are also unlikely to want to draw attention to a strongman not respecting voters’ wishes.
   
   

3. Three assassinations in the Middle East. First, Israel struck a compound in Beirut killing Hezbollah senior commander Fuad Shukr on the outskirts of the Lebanese capital. Then in the early morning on Wednesday, Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran. Finally, Israel confirmed the killing of Hamas military leader Mohammed Deif in a strike in Gaza last month. What’s going on? Is Israel trying to get all its business done before the election in anticipation of a Harris presidency that might not be quite so ‘pro-Israel’? Or is Netanyahu trying to draw Iran into an all out war to make it impossible for the US to distance itself from the region?
   
   

4. Harris’s veepstakes roll on. Our contacts tell us Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro is at the top of the list. Shapiro isn’t the safest choice — he’s been critical of the pro-Palestinian university protests — but as an effective and well-liked governor from a must-win state he has plenty of upside. Our contacts also speculate that Arizona senator Mark Kelly failed his vetting and is out of the running, but we’ve not been able to confirm that. Minnesota governor Tim Walz is still in the race and is probably the ‘safest’ pick, but John’s dark horse pick to click is Mayor Pete out of the great state of Michigan.
   
   

5. What we’re hearing ahead of the Democratic National Convention. When Biden was still running, it seemed like the DNC was going to be a snooze fest, so some embassies in Washington didn’t even bother RSVP’ing to the Chicago affair. Our sources say there were a couple of reasons — first, the DNC falls in the middle of the sacred August vacation season for European diplomats and second, the RNC was free but the DNC costs $750 per person and embassies are reportedly limited by headcount (one source told us that even spouses were allowed at the RNC). Now that Harris is the presumptive nominee, expect those embassies to be scrambling to attend, if for no other reason than it would be a poor look to skip the possible future president's historic nomination.

Listen to the full conversation in your browser by using the audio player above, or by subscribing to our podcast feed below.

Where in the world is…

• President Joe Biden received his Daily Brief at 10am in Washington.

• Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to give a eulogy at Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee's Celebration of Life service.

• Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Mongolia meeting with the Foreign Minister Battsetseg Batmunkh and President Ukhnaaglin Khurelsukh.

• Former President Donald Trump set the internet and pundits ablaze with comments at the National Association of Black Journalists convention in Chicago on Wednesday, saying that Kamala Harris 'became Black' only recently.

Papers of the world

Project 2025 didn’t make it past 2024

When the director of the Heritage Foundation stepped down this week, the question on everyone’s mind was whether the explosive 900-page Project 2025, a conservative manifesto with over 400 scholars bylined, would survive.

Although former President Donald Trump has denied any involvement with Project 2025, the connection to some of his prior top advisors, such as the Heritage Foundation’s former director, Paul Dans, has fueled allegations.

Here’s how the world papers have reported the conservative project —

🇶🇦 What could Project 2025 mean for the rest of the world? - Al Jazeera, Doha, Qatar

• Intrigue’s take: Project 2025 advocates for a Middle East security pact, or “second ‘Quad’ arrangement,” that includes “Israel, Egypt, the Gulf states, and potentially India.” Similar to what Netanyahu called for in his Congressional speech on July 24th.

🇷🇺 Trump leads Harris – polls - Russia Today RT, Moscow, Russia

• Intrigue’s take: While Russia appears 66 times in Project 2025, state funded Russian media seems to be pushing out stories with strong Trump policy and not so friendly Kamala Harris lines. One piece questioned in the headline if Harris was a “sacrificial lamb?”

🇬🇧 Project 2025: A wish list for a Trump presidency, explained - BBC, London, UK

• Intrigue’s take: This headline is Trump’s nightmare considering he keeps reiterating he has no connection to the controversial manifesto.

🇭🇰 Why US right-wing Project 2025 could be bad news for Beijing: ‘China is a threat’ - South China Morning Post, Hong Kong

• Intrigue’s take: “China” appears 243 times in the document, Ukraine on the other hand was only mentioned 21.

GRAPH OF THE DAY

Average Joe Democrats and Republicans are at odds over Russia. While most Democrats say the US is providing an appropriate amount of funding, or even not enough, to Ukraine, nearly half of Republicans believe the money being allocated is far too much and should be reduced or eliminated.

Across party lines, there has been a general shift in perception. Right after Russia invaded Ukraine, 50% of Americans considered Moscow a “major threat” to US interests. Today, that figure stands at 34%.

Will this matter in November? Pew Research Center left this question off the survey, but if the debate over Ukraine aid from Congress in the spring is any indication, the issue could influence voters. Or perhaps, like much of foreign policy, it's primarily a concern within the halls of Washington.

What we’re reading

• Who’s Afraid of Josh Shapiro?

• Gina Raimondo Getting Vetted for VP Is a Great Sign for Corporate America

• Trump vs. Harris is dividing Silicon Valley into feuding political camps

• New Data Shows How The 2024 Election Is Playing Out On TikTok

Poll

Last week’s poll: If elected, will Harris continue much of Biden's foreign policy?

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👍 Yes, she's his VP. (22%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🧠 No, she has differing views. (7%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ❓Maybe, some things will be the same, some will change. (69%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (1%)

Your two cents:

• 👍 N.L: “Both Biden and Harris are part of a Democrat party that emphasizes solidarity as a whole - I don't expect any huge breaks just because of the face in the chair.”

• ❓ B.J: “Leaders need to create a vision for themselves and lean into who they are. A complete acceptance of Biden’s policies would raise red flags.”

• 👍 F.M: “I think that since she had no personal foreign policy at this time, she will let her staff stay the course. Perhaps in a year or two (who knows what else may pop up!) she might move in other directions. ”

• ✍️ C.N: “I'm still flabbergasted how the DNC failed so early to give other democratic candidates a shot.”