Are Netanyahu and Putin telling us who they want to win?

Plus: A presidential debate... in Iran

Hi Intriguer and welcome to the first edition of Election Intrigue!

I’ve been overwhelmed (in a good way!) by how many of you have subscribed over the past week and by how many have said you’re desperate for apolitical, fact-based analysis of the US election and what it means for the world.

I hear you. As someone who has to read the news for a living, boy do I hear you! But of course, giving you ‘fact-based analysis’ requires us to form views and opinions, and the line between facts and opinions can sometimes become blurred.

To help you distinguish between the facts and our analysis, we’ll put our opinions, interpretations, and speculation within green text boxes. Everything outside those green textboxes will come from news reports, direct quotes, and other sources we have determined to be reliable.

This is a technique I used in my former diplomatic career when advising decision-makers: lay out the facts, interpret what they mean, and then let the recipient make up their own mind.

Of course, both Kristen and I would be lying if we said we were not a little nervous about launching a politically focused newsletter. We know feelings run strong on these issues, but we think they’re too important to be ignored.

We hope our above approach to covering these topics will help you — regardless of your political views — understand a little more about the US election and what it means for the world.

Enough navel-gazing! Let’s crack on with our first edition, in which we look at whether Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin would prefer Biden or Trump to win in November.

- John Fowler & Kristen Talman from Washington, DC

Top story

Are Netanyahu and Putin telling us who they want to win?

Netanyahu calls out the US

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu criticized US President Joe Biden’s administration for withholding large bomb shipments to Israel in a video on Tuesday.

Netanyahu’s rebuke came several weeks after the US decided to withhold a shipment of 2,000lb Joint Direct Attack Munitions as Washington completed an evaluation of the Israeli military’s actions in Gaza.

Speaking in English and looking straight down the camera, the Israeli leader labeled the US decision “inconceivable” as "Israel, America's closest ally, is fighting for its life.”

A few hours after the Netanyahu video dropped, Axios reported that a high-level meeting between US and Israeli officials scheduled for Thursday was canceled. Officials say the meetings were moved for unrelated scheduling reasons.

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre responded Tuesday, saying, "We genuinely do not know what he's talking about; we just don't."

Earlier today, White House spokesman John Kirby added, “Netanyahu's video was very disappointing, perplexing, and vexing. We expressed our concern to the Israeli government at different levels. You have to ask Netanyahu what he was thinking”.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken insists that there’s been “no change in our [US] posture” towards Israel, telling reporters on Tuesday that "It's very important to remember that our security relationship with Israel goes well beyond Gaza.”

Looking ahead, Netanyahu will address Congress on 24 July, but there hasn’t been an announcement about whether the Prime Minister’s visit will include a trip to the White House.

Both Politico and Axios reported that counter-programming by progressives is underway on Capitol Hill in the hope of sending a message about the “strong levels of dissatisfaction with the Israeli leader.”

So what’s Netanyahu playing at?

Notwithstanding their apparent dislike of one another, Netanyahu knows that Biden believes in supporting Israel (as Biden has done for most of his political career). So why might Netanyahu call out the Biden Administration so pointedly?

First, Netanyahu’s criticism of Biden echoes Republican claims that the president isn’t doing enough for Israel. If Netanyahu believes that Trump would be a better US president for Israel, his rebuke of Biden gives Trump and other Republicans potent fodder for the campaign trail.

And it’s reasonable to believe Trump would be more ‘pro-Israel.’ For one, he wouldn’t have to appease a ‘pro-Palestinian’ wing of his party. And, as this LA Times article lays out, he gave near-unconditional support to Israel on key questions, including the status of Jerusalem, the sovereignty of the Golan Heights, and Palestinian statehood.

Second, even though the pro-Palestinian campus protests have ended thanks to the summer break, Biden continues to face pressure from the left flank of the Democratic Party to get Israel to reduce its use of force in Gaza.

Netanyahu might also be trying to give rhetorical ammunition to pro-Israel groups within the Democratic Party to counterbalance this. Remember, Netanyahu can’t afford to dismiss the Democratic Party in case it wins in November.

Lastly, Netanyahu is struggling to keep his government together. Most analysts say his future depends on keeping far-right powerbrokers like National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich on his side.

So, who Netanyahu would prefer to win the US presidential election might not matter as much as who Ben-Gvir and Smotrich want to win. And they’re in Trump’s corner.

Putin’s peace offer

Vladimir Putin set out his conditions for peace in Ukraine last Friday as world leaders headed to Switzerland to attend the Ukraine Peace Summit. Putin offered an immediate ceasefire in exchange for:

  • Control of four Ukrainian regions: Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia

  • That Ukraine “denazify” (Putin’s coded language for removing Zelenskyy and installing a pro-Moscow government in Kyiv)

  • And a guarantee that Ukraine drops its NATO ambitions.

Ukraine immediately rejected the proposal, calling it a capitulation.

Former president Trump has long claimed he would stop the war “in 24 hours” if elected. Asked how he would achieve that on Fox News last Sunday, Trump responded: 

"I know Zelenskyy very well, and I know Putin very well, even better. And I had a good relationship, very good with both of them. I would tell Zelenskyy, no more. You got to make a deal. I would tell Putin, if you don't make a deal, we're going to give him a lot. We're going to [give Ukraine] more than they ever got if we have to. I will have the deal done in one day. One day."

A day earlier, Trump spoke about continued US military assistance for Ukraine at a Turning Point USA event, saying:

"Now, here's the beauty. [Zelenskyy] just left four days ago with $60 billion, and he gets home, and he announces he needs another $60 billion. It never ends…. I will have that settled prior to taking the White House as president-elect."

Back in April, Trump said that his issue with funding Ukraine was that Europe should be picking up more of the tab, not with the principle of defending Ukraine:

"Why can't Europe equalize or match the money put in by the United States of America in order to help a Country in desperate need? As everyone agrees, Ukrainian Survival and Strength should be much more important to Europe than to us, but it is also important to us!”

Notwithstanding Trump’s various comments above, Putin has pushed back on the idea that he wants to see a second Trump presidency:

“I say absolutely sincerely, I wouldn’t say that we believe that after the election something will change on the Russian track in American politics…We don’t think so. We think nothing that serious will happen.”

So what’s Putin playing at?

Former President Trump appears to be signaling to Putin his willingness to negotiate for peace over Ukraine. So, the theory goes, Vladimir Putin should want Donald Trump to become the 47th president, right?

Perhaps, but it’s not as clear as many think that a Trump administration would be better for Putin in the long term.

For starters, despite Trump’s often friendly rhetoric, he wasn’t exactly soft on Putin, imposing dozens of sanctions between 2017 and 2021. And Trump’s comments about support for Ukraine being important to the US at least suggest he wouldn’t simply let Russia roll into Ukraine.

Of course, Trump’s past comments are often a poor predictor of his future actions, but they bear noting nonetheless.

And even if Trump did want to give Putin what he wants, he would be at least partially constrained by ‘traditional, Bush-era Republicans’ (though they are not a dominant force in today’s Republican Party) and by other Western leaders.

In fact, Politico has reported that Western leaders are already trying to “Trump proof” US support for Ukraine by agreeing to a new plan to have NATO take over from the US in coordinating military aid.

The simple fact is that Putin is rooting for whichever candidate he believes will make it easier for him to achieve his goals. While he probably believes Trump would help him get what he wants in Ukraine in the short term, Putin’s ultimate, long-term goal is to weaken US power and influence around the world.

Given that Trump’s foreign policy is rooted in using American strength to pursue its interests around the world, perhaps Putin is, for once, being ‘absolutely sincere’ when he says that not much will change in the US-Russia relationship, regardless of the result in November.

Intrigue x The Harris Poll

Each week until the election, we’re partnering with The Harris Poll to run exclusive field polls focusing on American voters’ attitudes to foreign policy and the election.

In a somewhat surprising result (at least to us!), more than 75% of American adults think international relations will impact the US election and their own engagement with it in November.

Politics no longer stops at the water’s edge.

Iran’s presidential debate

Iranians are gearing up to vote for a new president on June 28th following the death of former President Raisi in a helicopter crash in May. On Monday, the six Guardian Council-approved candidates went at it during their first televised debate.

The Biden camp won’t be thrilled that Iran’s former foreign minister turned presidential contender, Muhammed Zarif, pulled out a chart and argued that, in his opinion, Iran’s increase in oil sales has been made possible thanks to the Biden administration’s loose enforcement of sanctions. Zarif refuted more hardline claims that former President Raisi had figured out a magic black-market solution to keep oil exports flowing.

The Iran Nuclear Deal also came up. Many hardliners in Iran were critical of the 2015 deal signed by former President Obama and were pleased when former President Trump pulled out of the agreement in 2018. Intriguingly, reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian said during the debate that he wants to revive the 2015 nuclear deal in an attempt to curb sanctions and loosen international banking restrictions on the country.

Papers of the world

Earlier this week, President Joe Biden announced a plan to grant undocumented immigrants married to US citizens an easier path to citizenship and the ability to gain employment rights.

The Trump campaign criticized the move, saying it will "undoubtedly lead to a greater surge in migrant crime, cost taxpayers millions of dollars they cannot afford, overwhelm public services, and steal Social Security and Medicare benefits from American seniors."

Here’s how the global papers reported on the plan:

🇧🇷 In an electoral gesture, Biden announces protection for immigrants married to US citizens - Folha, São Paulo, Brazil 

  • Intrigue’s take: Intriguingly, the paper editorialized the headline, calling it an election move aimed at winning over voters for Biden, who is neck and neck with former president Donald Trump in the polls.

🇶🇦 Biden unveils plan allowing hundreds of thousands to gain US citizenship - Al Jazeera, Doha, Qatar

  • Intrigue’s take: The Middle East paper emphasized the number of eligible applicants instead of the legal requirements to qualify under the plan.

🇨🇳 Biden announces new immigration moves - China Daily, Beijing, China

  • Intrigue’s take:  Chinese papers intended for an English-speaking audience (like the China Daily) veer wildly between the two extremes of factual headlines that tell you nothing about what happened and overtly opinionated headlines that would make even a hardened propagandist blush. This is the former.

🇪🇸 Biden announces the regularization of migrants in an irregular situation married to Americans - El Pais, Madrid, Spain

  • Intrigue’s take:  While undocumented immigrants married to Americans can be found all around the world, the focus inside the US has been on the migrants arriving from South and Central American countries. It adds up that the Spanish paper, which has significant reach in the region, would cover this issue thoroughly.

Where in the world is…

  • President Joe Biden started Thursday at his beach house in Delaware and will travel to Camp David tonight to prepare for the first presidential debate next Thursday.

  • Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Washington, attending meetings at the Department today (Thursday). Spokesperson Matthew Miller held a press briefing at 2 pm EST. 

  • Donald Trump is preparing for a rally on Saturday in Philadelphia at Temple University, a key battleground state and the Republican candidate’s fourth visit to Pennsylvania this year. Joe Biden visited Pennsylvania eight times in 2024.

  • Kamala Harris appeared on Atlanta’s KISS 104.1 show Thursday morning and will head to Phoenix on Monday for a Biden-Harris campaign event.

  • House Intelligence Chair Mike Turner spoke at a Center for Strategic and International Studies event earlier today and warned that the Biden Administration is “sleepwalking” into a “Cuban Missile Crisis in space” as Putin grows bullish on launching nuclear weapons.

  • National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will meet his Israeli counterpart, Tzachi Hanegbi, today.

What we’re reading

  • 👋 Semafor reported from Cannes that advertisers plan to “simply step back [from advertising in news media] for about six weeks before November” to avoid any interaction with US presidential election-related content. The exception will be products they can “control entirely.”

  • ✍️ Trump’s former national security advisor, Robert O’Brien, penned an article in Foreign Affairs praising Trump’s Jacksonian foreign policy strategy and calling for a return to testing “new nuclear weapons for reliability and safety.” Critics said that risks accelerating the global arms race.

  • 📟 Biden is dispatching officials to the Netherlands and Japan to persuade the respective governments to join US restrictions on China’s semiconductor sector, according to a Bloomberg scoop.

  • 💸 High net-worth individuals from China are leaving the country in droves, with a record expected exodus of 15,200 in 2024. Their destination? According to an investment migration firm, Henley & Partners, the US stands out as the top spot.

  • 👪 AP News reported that the Trump campaign is looking to Tiffany Trump’s father-in-law, Lebanese-born Texas business guru Massad Boulos, to win over the Arab American vote. One organizer who said they always vote Democrat told Intrigue they’re angling towards voting Republican in November — “If it’s between the Muslim ban or the war in Gaza, the first option doesn’t sound as bad anymore.”

  • 🌲 In an effort to protect American producers, US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo, Secretary for Agriculture Thomas Vilsack, and the US trade envoy Katherine Tai wrote to the EU urging the body to delay a ban on cocoa, timber, and sanitary products, the FT reported. The ban, meant to curb deforestation, will take effect in seven months.

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We’ll experiment with the length and format of this newsletter over the next few weeks to ensure it’s the best it can possibly be for you. If you have (constructive!) suggestions on what you’d like to see, don’t hesitate to hit reply and let us know. See you next week!