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🗳️ NATO and the US Election

🗳️ NATO and the US Election

Plus: Democrats on geopolitics

July 11, 2024 • Reading Time: 10 minutes

Hi Intriguer. Diplomats can spend a whole career waiting for a political moment as juicy as this one right now.

While most of them are unlikely to have any inside knowledge of whether Joe Biden will step down (despite what many of their cables back to capital will say!), that’s not the most important question.

The work of a diplomat during a time like this is to think multiple steps ahead. If Joe Biden drops out of the race, then who are the most likely replacements? And of those replacements, who on their teams (if they even have teams at this stage) do we need to get friendly with to ensure we can influence them in the future?

It’s more art than science, but we bet the advisors to Kamala Harris, Gretchen Whitmer, and Gavin Newsom have never heard so many compliments delivered in so many different accents.

In this week’s newsletter, we focus on the 75th NATO Summit, which wraps up today in Washington, D.C. The US election race is obviously dominating discussions, so we’ve analyzed four quotes from foreign leaders that are instructive of how the world is viewing the Greatest Soap Opera on Earth.

Other news to note:

Donald Trump looks set to choose a running mate this weekend (our sources guess there’ll be an announcement on Saturday, though it’s just speculation).
The Republican National Convention begins in Milwaukee on Monday. A Republican strategist said Trump’s main goal should be to a) appear statesmanlike and b) provoke Biden with personal jabs so that he stays in the race. Are the two not mutually exclusive?
Joe Biden will host a news conference in a few hours. It’s hard to see how it will quell fears about his candidacy, but it could well accelerate them…

- John Fowler & Kristen Talman from Washington DC

(PS. Don’t forget to subscribe to the Election Intrigue podcast!)

US election chaos dominates the NATO Summit

How to read Election Intrigue: we’ll keep our analysis in green boxes to help you distinguish between the facts and what we think they mean.

The annual NATO summit in July is normally a fairly standard affair - a few handshakes, a few announcements, and it’s off to the Med for a month of summer holidays.

This year is a little different. Was Biden’s horrific debate performance really just a bad night, or are the reports that foreign leaders have had concerns about the president’s mental acuity for months more on the money? That’s the question on everyone’s mind this week.

Unfortunately for the US president, sources we’ve talked to suggest that Biden’s 10-minute opening address on Tuesday did little to reassure the diplomats and officials in the room.

So here are the four (public) quotes we think best capture the mood at NATO about the US election:

1. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

“Ladies and Gentlemen, let’s be, and I want to be, candid and frank. Now everyone is waiting for November. Americans are waiting for November, and Europe, Middle East, in the Pacific. The whole world is looking towards November and truly speaking Putin awaits November too.”

Speaking at the Ronald Reagan Institute on Tuesday, Zelenskyy cut to the chase, addressing the US elections in his opening remarks.

When later asked about his relationship with Trump, and whether he was worried about Trump’s promise to solve the war in a day, Zelenskyy said that while he got along fine with Trump during his presidency, the situation in a “wartime is different” and he hasn’t worked with Trump during the war.

Zelenskyy did emphasize, though, that he doesn’t want the US position to change, saying that the US is paying a small price to keep American boots off the ground while Ukrainians are on the frontlines, killing Russians and dying in the process.

Our take:

We asked a Ukrainian diplomat whether they felt Zelenskyy’s attendance at the NATO Summit was make or break for the country’s future, to which they carefully responded: “It was an important event for us.”

Zelenskyy’s team has seemingly decided that the best approach to securing continued US support for their war effort is to keep their heads below the parapet.

That’s a smart strategy. The Republican Party is not a monolith when it comes to Ukraine. Prominent leaders including House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul and retiring Senator Mitch McConnell will likely push back on any efforts to force Ukraine to the negotiating table against their will (though that probably depends on the size of a potential Trump victory - if he wins in a landslide, we’d expect internal Republican opposition to his approach to melt away).

Of course, Zelenskyy and his team are well aware that the presidency is only part of the picture and strong relationships on the Hill are crucial.

To that end, Sweden’s foreign minister said earlier this week he was surprised how much time he had to spend with congressional leaders to secure Sweden’s place in NATO, telling listeners it's not just about who lands in the Oval Office when it comes to foreign policy directives.

2. Hungary’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto

"We see a chance for peace if President Trump is winning. We see a chance for good Hungary-U.S. relationships if President Trump is winning."

Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orbán told Politico on Sunday that there’s a “very, very high chance [that President Joe Biden will lose the election]. I believe that [Trump] will be good for the world politics. [Trump is] the man of peace.”

So it was unsurprising to hear Foreign Minister Szijjarto echo his boss’s comments in a Reuters interview on Tuesday.

Orbán is fresh off a trip to Moscow and Beijing, where he met Presidents Putin and Xi, rattling observers in Western capitals. The New York Times also reported this morning that Orbán will fly to Florida to meet with former President Trump later today (Thursday local time).

Our take:

It’s probably true that Orbán and Trump’s friendship has its roots in their mutual admiration for ‘strongman’ politics, but that doesn’t mean the Hungarian Prime Minister’s public support of Trump isn’t carefully thought out.

The calculus from Orbán’s point of view is simple: if Biden/the Democrats win, nothing much will change. The European Union will still need Hungary’s vote on major policy initiatives, and the US will want to prevent it getting too cosy with Russia. Orbán will still have leverage.

But if Trump wins, Orbán will be in the unique position of being Trump’s favorite European leader, something that will raise his profile on the world stage.

Ultimately, Trump’s brand of America-first isolationism is good for leaders like Orbán who fancy themselves as regional power brokers but have long been constrained by the EU.

For the Trump camp, Orbán is useful. Not only does he heap praise on Donald Trump (which Trump loves, often mentioning Orbán’s support at his rallies), but he’s also a well-known European leader who would almost certainly support Trump’s plan to end the war in Ukraine (which would likely include making controversial concessions to Russia).

3. Pasi Rajala - State Secretary, Finland

“Even the United States needs its allies…it’s a two way street, NATO isn’t a charity and I personally believe the US increasingly needs its allies...”

Rajala’s comments came during a panel discussion earlier this week, which included top diplomats from eight Nordic and Baltic nations.

During the same panel discussion, the Norwegian Foreign Minister reminded listeners that the only time NATO’s Article 5 was invoked was when the US was attacked on September 11th, 2001.

Estonia’s representative said that they want the US to remain a strong NATO leader, helping to shepherd the alliance forward.

Finland, along with Sweden, is NATO’s newest member, joining the alliance in April 2023. NATO members unanimously invited Finland to join after public opinion shifted dramatically in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Our take:

We think this messaging is more for domestic and European audiences. The Nordic countries are generally excellent diplomats and are surely aware that public statements are not the way to influence Trump.

In fact, part of us wonders if the European countries most threatened by Russia wouldn’t mind a second Trump presidency. Of course, Trump’s public disparagement of NATO worries them, but if his approach convinces other NATO members to step up, that might be a good thing.

For example, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania all already spend more than 2% of their annual GDP on defense and undoubtedly want Germany and other heavyweights to follow their example.

That aligns them with Republican rhetoric - as recently as Monday, Republican Speaker of the House Mike Johnson called out Canada for only committing 1.7% of GDP to defense.

We bet Northern European countries would still prefer a Democratic administration, but a Republican one might not be the disaster for them that many assume.

4. Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of Germany

“From the many conversations I had with the American President, I know that he prepared this summit very well and very precisely with us.”

Right before leaving for Washington on Monday, German reporters asked the chancellor if he had a comment on Biden’s debate performance and overall health. Scholz shot down the question promptly.

Scholz’s tone was notably different than comments he made to Politico on the margins of the G7 Summit earlier in June (before the debate), when he said that Joe Biden “knows exactly what he is doing” and would likely win the election.

During meetings this week, Scholz also tried to reassure those concerned about Germany's defense spending, saying that his government planned to continue increasing its defense spending beyond 2027.

How much do you think Scholz’s advisers wish he’d never given that interview to Politico? Of course, when asked this week, Scholz had to say he still had confidence in Biden’s ability to lead, but his comments were notably less effusive than before.

Behind the scenes, one German official told us that they watched the same debate as everyone else, saw the same polls, and have the same concerns over the President’s ability to continue for four more years.

And like the rest of Western Europe, they’re worried that Trump will abandon NATO before the alliance is strong enough to stand on its own two feet. Ultimately Scholz knows it will take decades to get European defense to where it needs to be, and will happily deal with any American leader willing to help get them there.

Zooming out, NATO countries aren’t just hedging between Biden and Trump, but more broadly against a world in which US leadership is receding.

The thinking is that if the Democrats win in November, their ability to maintain strong US leadership around the world will be constrained by an increasingly isolationist Republican majority in Congress.

If Trump wins (an outcome most of our sources view as likely), they expect the US to pursue a far more limited set of national interests which would likely lead to regional power vacuums.

Some countries are actively jockeying to fill those potential power vacuums (France, Turkey, Hungary) while some are simply preparing for that possibility (Northern European countries).

Either way, there seems to be a consensus that American power in Europe is on the wane, whatever happens in November.

Democrats on Foreign Policy

If Biden loses his battle to stay as the Democratic nominee for President, the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August will be like a deep-dish pizza: it promises something different and fun, and you’ll love that first taste, but consume too much and you’ll be sick for days.

We remain of the view that Biden will not be the nominee, which means the American public will have very little time to get to know whoever becomes the nominee.

So there’s no time like the present to examine what the Democratic Party’s emerging leaders have to say about foreign policy…

Still the most likely if President Biden doesn’t run: Vice President Kamala Harris

The Vice President traditionally avoids foreign affairs. Her foreign policy, at least initially would most likely look very similar to Biden’s. To the extent Harris has involved herself in foreign policy, she:

Called for an Israel-Gaza ceasefire in Alabama
Represented the US at the Ukraine Peace Summit and the Munich Security Conference, as Biden let Harris lead
Hosted Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before taking him to the White House. She also made her first foreign visit as VP to Mexico City
Supports a “free and strong” Ukraine
Doesn’t think the US fell out of a coconut tree.

The most intriguing choice: Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer

Whitmer’s state has a high concentration of Arab-American voters, many of whom are critical of the US relationship with Israel. Michigan is home to the uncommitted movement, where over 100,000 Democrat voters ditched picking Biden in the primaries to protest the President’s handling of the war in Gaza.

Whitmer serves as the chair of Biden’s reelection campaign which puts her in a tough spot on Gaza. The Washington Post has reported that Whitmer has tried to fix the problem, privately reaching out to constituents.

On other issues, Whitmer has:

Supported the opening of a Chinese EV manufacturer in Michigan despite constituent pushback
Supported an anti-boycott bill against anti-Israel ‘Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions’ movement
Opposed withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord
Been largely supportive of Biden’s immigration policy

The one everyone has heard of: California Governor Gavin Newsom

Newsom oversees the fifth-largest economy in the world, larger than many of the US’ closest allies. But he has limited diplomatic experience, something he is trying to change, starting with a week-long trip to China and Israel in late 2023.

On other issues Newsom has:

Signed a climate pact in China, saying, “California and China hold the keys to solving the climate crisis. As two of the world’s largest economies, our partnership is essential to delivering climate action for our communities and beyond.”
Made a stop in Israel to express support for those impacted by the Israel-Gaza war, and announced $30m commitment to support and protect houses of worship and non-profits in the state.

Where in the world is…

President Joe Biden has a bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy at 1:30 p.m., but all eyes will be on his press conference at 6:30 p.m.
Former President Donald Trump will meet with Victor Orbán in Florida before heading to the RNC in Milwaukee next week.
Vice President Kamala Harris is off to Greensboro, North Carolina, for a campaign event.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Washington and met with the G7 foreign ministers at 8.30 am this morning.

Papers of the world

NATO AROUND THE WORLD

Here’s how the NATO Summit was reported around the world:

🇷🇺 “NATO sees no imminent military threat from Russia — Stoltenberg”
- Tass, Moscow, Russia

Intrigue’s take: The key, cherry-picked word here is ‘imminent’. The mood in Washington this week is that while the threat may not be imminent, it is present.

🇬🇧 “UK will be ‘leading European nation’ in Nato, defence secretary pledges“
- The Guardian, London, UK

Intrigue’s take: Labour, fresh from its election win, is eager to make its voice heard at NATO and has made headlines to reflect such.

🇦🇪 “Nato summit: Ukraine looks to get Middle East nations on its side”
- The National, Dubai, UAE

Intrigue’s take: It could be a sign that Ukraine is looking for other regions to support its cause, or maybe just that The National is making its readers feel some national pride.

🇨🇳 “China opposes NATO stoking conflict, confrontation in Asia-Pacific”
- CGTN, Beijing, China

Intrigue’s take: China’s Foreign Ministry made sure its thoughts on NATO were clear in a briefing on Wednesday.

THE FIRST PITCH

Credit: USA Today

In true Washington fashion, outgoing Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg was invited to throw out the first pitch at a Washington Nationals game this week (that’s baseball for you non-sports fans).

We wrote a joke about a Norwegian in the Washington DC heat, but Secretary of State Blinken beat us to it last night, saying, “In honor of Jens, we wanted to have a Nordic summit. And what better way to have a Nordic summit than to have a sauna? So I’m glad we could organize that for all of you in Washington.”

Honestly, not bad!

As for Stoltenberg’s first pitch? Not great, but we’ve seen much worse.

What we’re reading

US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines warns of Iranian influence in the presidential and congressional elections
US intelligence official indicates Russia prefers Trump as election victor
George Clooney: “I Love Joe Biden. But We Need a New Nominee.”
Nancy Pelosi: It's up to Biden to decide if he's going to run. Whatever he decides, we go with.
Opinion Democratic Sen. Peter Welch: Biden should withdraw for the good of the country

Poll

Do you think Trump would pull the US out of NATO?

See you next week.