🗳️ How JD Vance sees the world

JDHi Intriguer. There are plenty of reasons to visit Milwaukee throughout the year (the breweries and renowned cheese are just two), but this July there's one more reason keeping hoteliers busy: the Republican National Convention.

Which is how I found myself in Wisconsin this week where the mood was palpably jubilant. With Trump leading Biden (and by some metrics Harris) in the polls, Republicans weren’t discussing how Trump would win the presidency but rather what his administration would do on their first days back in the Oval Office.

Attendees got creative with their attire: many sported ear bandages, a tribute to Trump’s scarring mere days after an attempt on his life, while women kept to a strict GOP-red dress code and clear, security-proof bags. But my eye was caught by another group of people in attendance.

Political conventions are typically domestic affairs, but this year’s RNC was flooded with foreign diplomats. Every which way I turned, I saw an ambassador — the Ukrainian ambassador to the US, the Belgians, Japanese, you name it, a delegation was there. Many were supposedly trying to line up meetings with could-be Trump officials. And as the week draws to a close, the foreign delegates have a new figure to research — J.D Vance, who happens to be the focus of today’s newsletter.

- John Fowler in Boston & Kristen Talman in Milwaukee

How vice-presidential nominee J.D Vance sees the world

Ohio Senator J.D. Vance won Donald Trump’s presidential apprentice competition and officially accepted the Republican nominee for vice-president last night. Donald Trump will accept the nomination for president tonight (US time) before the Republican National Convention (RNC) closes.

Before winning his senate seat in 2022, 39-year-old Vance worked for several venture capital firms, and wrote the bestselling memoir ‘Hillbilly Elegy’. On policy, Vance will be a forceful and effective advocate for Trump’s ‘America First’ platform.

Plenty has been written on J.D. Vance’s backstory, (check out the ‘What We’re Reading’ section below), but you come to Election Intrigue to find out what the US election means for the world, so let’s take a spin through the vice-presidential candidate’s views on the world…

1. On Europe and NATO

European ambassadors were being carted around the RNC in a bus put on by the US State Department on Monday when J.D Vance was announced as the VP pick and his statements on NATO began to emerge. Based on Vance’s public comments, the ambassadors probably weren’t thrilled:

Vance says Europe must “wake up” and defend itself…

• “Europe really has to wake up to … You don’t win wars with GDP or euros or dollars. You win wars with weapons, and the West doesn’t make enough weapons,”a remark Vance made at the February Munich Security Conference which came to the forefront in conversations this week, as the new VP pick said bullishly that the continent must “take a bigger role in its own security.”

• And even though Chancellor Scholz said he was brought to tears over Vance’s 2016 book Hillbilly Elegy, the US Senator has singled out Germany, saying Berlin must push to meet its NATO defense spending of 2% of GDP.

But Trump and Vance’s views on European security are an opportunity for Europe, former US defense official Eldridge Colby argued at a European Commission event on Tuesday. (We joked with Colby that he can barely get a second alone, being nearly chased into the bathroom by folks hoping to get in his good graces).

Colby said that the Trump administration would actually help Europe by pushing it to be self-reliant. Instead of viewing the Trump-Vance ticket as abandoning Europe, European ambassadors should instead write in their cables home that a Trump administration would be a gift.

On Ukraine, Trump has repeatedly said he’d end the war in a day. Vance is in lockstep, and in April led an (unsuccessful) effort in the Senate to block a $60B military aid package for Ukraine.

• Vance has called Ukraine “the most corrupt leadership and government in Europe,”and accused Zelenskyy’s associates of using US funds to buy yachts(multiple media outlets have described the claim as inaccurate).

• "I gotta be honest with you, I don't really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another," Vance said in February 2022.

Vance believes Ukraine cannot win the war, saying it does not have enough soldiers to push Russia back, and the American people are unwilling to keep funding Ukraine’s war effort.

2. On Taiwan and China

Vance believes that preventing a Chinese invasion of Taiwan should be the US’ top foreign policy concern, arguing that it’s the best way to avoid an economic apocalypse that could make the Great Depression look like a mild inconvenience.

Vance’s China policy is based on his view that US resources are finite:

• “We don’t have the industrial capacity—because we have made a lot of bad decisions—to focus on China and Ukraine simultaneously.”

• “Every time that we add another $25 billion to the amount that we are giving Ukraine we are actually, without realizing it, making a decision to not focus on the East Asian theater.”

And according to Vance, the US is breaking its promises to Taiwan…

• “Right now, you know that Joe Biden is not sending weapons to Taiwan, weapons that we promised the Taiwanese, because we’re sending those weapons to Ukraine or elsewhere. ” 

• “I think that we should make it as hard as possible for China to take Taiwan in the first place, and the honest answer is we’ll figure out what we do [to stop them] if they attack.”

So Vance wants to bring manufacturing home:

• “It’s time to manufacture our weapons in the United States,” Vance has argued, wanting the US to be known as the “arsenal of democracy.” Again, Vance says the US cannot do that “unless you get out and stop the focus on Ukraine.”

• “Together, we will protect the wages of American workers — and stop the Chinese Communist Party from building their middle class on the backs of American citizens," Vance said in his convention speech last night.

Like Trump, Vance says more tariffs are the way to do it:

• “We need to protect American industries from all of the competition,” Vance has argued, saying that continuing Trump’s (and Biden’s) strategy to slap tariffs on Chinese products could lead to “making more stuff in America, in Pennsylvania, in Ohio and in Michigan.”

Vance is no fan of Biden’s climate-focused approach on China:

• Vance has said that China has the “dirtiest economy in the world,” arguing that “penalizing” American industries with climate restrictions only hurts the US, particularly when Washington doesn’t force Beijing to impose the same restrictions.

3. On the Middle East

While the Russia-Ukraine war has divided Republicans, Vance and his peers are mostly united on Middle East issues.

Vance told Fox News he wants an end to the war in Gaza, saying two things need to happen:

• “Number one is, you want to get this war over and as quickly as possible because the longer it goes on the harder [Israel’s] situation becomes… Second, after the war, you want to reinvigorate that peace process between Israel, Saudi Arabia, the Jordanians and so forth.”

He’s praised Trump 1.0 era policy in the Middle East…

• “The Abraham Accords… showed real promise of uniting the Israelis with some of the Sunni Arab states. [The US should] “enable the Israelis and the Sunni Arab states to work together and actually provide a counterbalance to Iran.”

Not strictly related to the Middle East, but Vance caused quite a stir last week when he suggested that the UK under its new Labour government might be an “Islamist” country…

• “And I was talking about [with a friend], you know, what is the first truly Islamist country that will get a nuclear weapon, and we were like, maybe it’s Iran, you know, maybe Pakistan already kind of counts, and then we sort of finally decided maybe it’s actually the U.K., since Labour just took over.”

UK Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner dismissed the remarks saying Vance had said “quite a lot of fruity things in the past", but diplomatically added that she was looking forward to meeting her US counterpart if he was elected in November.

Note from John: There’s a good chance Vance could be given responsibility for technology and regulatory issues in a Trump administration. That could have significant repercussions for Europe-US relations. The Biden administration has cooperated closely with EU tech regulators, something we’d expect to change if Trump and Vance are elected. We’ll investigate this issue in a future Election Intrigue edition.

Harris Poll x Intrigue

Regardless of who wins in November, voters across the age ranges see a significant impact to Washington’s approach to foreign policy. And while we previously reported that voters are factoring geopolitics into their vote at the ballot box, less than 40% of eligible voters across age groups said that candidates’ approach to NATO would impact their choice in November.

Where in the world is…

• President Joe Biden tested positive for Covid-19 while on a campaign stop in Las Vegas.

• Former president Donald Trump is in Milwaukee for the RNC and is slotted to speak Thursday evening.

• Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Washington attending meetings and briefings at the Department.

• JD Vance spoke at the RNC late Wednesday night and was introduced by his wife, Usha Chilukuri Vance.

• Vice President Kamala Harris is headed to a campaign event in Fayetteville, North Carolina.

• Principal Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel will host a State briefing at 1PM.

Papers of the world

Milwaukee goes global

Milwaukee, a northern Midwest city known for its beer-making prowess and cheese curd-loving people has been the centre of global attention this week as it hosts the Republican National Convention.

Here’s how the world’s media has been covering the speeches:

🇷🇺Kremlin didn’t see Trump’s proposals for relaxing sanctions on Russia, spokesman says -Tass, Moscow, Russia

• Intrigue’s take:The Trump camp made headlines in Russia on Tuesday when they suggested that relaxing sanctions could be part of a Ukraine ceasefire deal.

🇯🇵Trump-Vance ticket sets stage for years of China arm-twisting - Nikkei, Tokyo, Japan

• Intrigue’s take:Tokyo has historically had a difficult relationship with Beijing so will welcome US focus on the region, though it might be concerned about unnecessary escalation in its backyard.

🇫🇷Trump critic turned 'successor': Novice senator Vance 'doesn't add much to ticket' other than youth - France 24, Paris, France

• Intrigue’s take:Last time we checked, France’s Prime Minister Gabriel Attal is 35 years old and an avid ‘BeReal’ user. Perhaps he can convince the VP pick to download a few Gen Z apps before November.

🇭🇰 Trump 2.0 certain to be more hawkish on China, analysts warn, as shooting sparks sympathy - South China Morning Post, Hong Kong

• Intrigue’s take:The sympathy for an attempted Trump assassination attempt will likely fall away if Trump is elected and chooses to escalate the trade war with Beijing.

SPOTTED IN MILWAUKEE

Is it just us, or does the above photo look like a dad taking his teenage son to work for the first time?

That is, of course, former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson who was in Milwaukee to reportedly make a last ditch effort to get Trump to commit to continue backing Ukraine in its fight against Russia. No word on whether Dad Trump was swayed, or just disappointed.

We also saw Liz Truss, former UK prime minister and good friend of former US Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell, wandering the conference hall in Milwaukee this week. And if Truss was worried about being stopped at every which block, she seemed to have been safe considering many attendees said they had no idea who she was.

What we’re reading

• How J.D. Vance Won Over Donald Trump

• Exclusive: Secret Service ramped up security after intel of Iran plot to assassinate Trump; no known connection to shooting

• Trump adviser Fiona Hill to lead UK defense review

• Trump picks a VP that’s just like Trump

Poll