Hi Intriguer. Are there any undecideds in this election? After all, the two candidates' every move has been watched, dissected and reported on by the media, offering voters (and the world) around-the-clock coverage into who Harris and Trump are. It's fair to say, the public have at least a rough idea of the two of them, so is anyone left deciding between the two? Or, instead, is the dilemma deciding to show up to the polls at all.

I spoke to a politically-connected hedge fund portfolio manager earlier this week who thinks there aren’t really any genuine undecideds. Or not enough of them in the right places to move the needle. Instead, he said, every election since Bush v Gore in 2000 has been a ‘turn-out election’. So what matters isn’t persuading undecideds, but rather throwing enough red meat to your base to make sure they vote.

If that’s true, then the candidate with the higher vote ceiling (potential constituents who will show up for them) —pollsters consistently put Harris’s ceiling above Trump’s—should win, assuming they can turn out their base.

In that context, perhaps I’ve been too quick to write off the Uncommitted Movement. If a few thousand folks in Michigan don’t vote for Kamala Harris because of the war in Gaza, it could absolutely change the election.

And perhaps that explains why I sense that Trump’s supporters are far more confident about his chances than they were a few weeks ago - yet I’ve not seen anything in the polling that would justify their increased confidence.

In this week’s podcast, Kristen and I discussed my theory about how Elon Musk is using betting markets to push a narrative that Donald Trump is winning, why I think the Middle East could look very different depending on whether Harris or Trump is elected, and whether Harris was right to call Iran America’s biggest adversary in a 60 Minutes interview this week.

Only 25 days to go 😮‍💨.

- John Fowler & Kristen Talman in Washington DC

Listen to this week’s podcast here, and if you’re not signed up for our flagship daily newsletter, International Intrigue, you can fix that here!

THE CONVERSATION

Still room for an October Surprise?

A summary of this week’s conversation:

1. Tel Aviv’s diplomacy could look very different after November. On Tuesday, Israeli media was abuzz with news that Prime Minister Netanyahu stopped Defence Chief Yoav Gallant's trip to Washington just hours before he was supposed to leave. There hasn’t been much information about why the trip was delayed, but it appears Netanyahu wanted to speak to Washington first, holding a call with President Biden and Vice President Harris on Wednesday morning, during which the two agreed to “remain in close contact over the coming days.”

Longtime journalist Bob Woodward released a new book this week, War, in which President Biden was reported to have angrily questioned Netanyahu about Israel’s war in Gaza, asking, “What’s your strategy, man?” Despite this, the State Department continues to unlock billions in military aid for the Netanyahu government, and in a press conference this week, State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller said the US supports Israel’s efforts in Lebanon. These facts, coupled with Biden’s regular announcements this year that a ceasefire is close, contribute to the sense that Netanyahu has completely outmanoeuvred Biden this year.

Looking ahead, we think the future of the Middle East could look pretty different, depending on who wins the White House. If Donald Trump wins, we suspect Benjamin Netanyahu may want to hand him an earlier win by publicly winding down Israel’s military operations. In return, Trump might agree to resurrect the Abraham Accords, further isolating Iran.

If Harris wins, it’s not clear what cards she has to play. Perhaps she’ll be able to forge a more collaborative relationship with Netanyahu, but it’s clear the dynamics of the relationship will be the same as those he has with the current White House. She will continue to support Israel militarily while trying to manage criticism about Israel’s actions from world leaders and her own party/base. We suspect it will end up looking a lot like Biden’s approach—well-intentioned but ultimately fruitless.

2. Kamala Harris sat down with 60 Minutes. It seemed like every foreign policy analyst in Washington was personally offended when the Vice President called Iran America’s biggest adversary instead of China or Russia. You could make a coherent argument for Russia, a strong argument that China is America’s biggest rival, but we think it’s hard to argue that Harris was wrong when she answered Iran.

In fact, it’s a fairly calibrated answer; calling Russia America’s biggest adversary would afford Putin a status he doesn’t warrant, and calling China America’s biggest adversary before she’s even been elected is the kind of slight Beijing would never forget, while calling out Iran doesn’t fundamentally change anything.

Harris also avoided answering whether she’d support Ukraine joining NATO in the future, which was likely also a well-calibrated response. If she is elected President, her non-committal answers to difficult foreign policy hypotheticals will have afforded her more diplomatic room to manoeuvre than if she had come out with more definitive answers.

3. Betting markets, Elon Musk, and what’s really going on. This portion of our conversation wasn’t strictly about foreign policy, but Kristen couldn’t pass up the opportunity to quiz John on his theory that Elon Musk is pushing a narrative that Trump is going to win the election because Trump is ahead in the betting markets. Musk has a lot to lose this election; not only has he gone all in for Trump, but there’s also a chance that a Democratic administration would intentionally make things hard for Musk’s companies (for example, pass more social media regulations affecting X, and national security regulations affecting Starlink and/or SpaceX) in retaliation for his involvement in the election.

It’s a poorly kept secret that some hedge funds manipulated Brexit betting markets to move FX markets back in 2016. While there’s no evidence that Musk is manipulating US election betting markets for financial gain, John does think he’s using them to create a narrative that Trump is on track to win the election easily.

Why? Well, firstly, there’s power in watching crowds. If people think Trump is going to win, then they might be more enthusiastic about his campaign, and if this is a turnout election, that could make a difference. Second, the narrative that Trump is going to win this election makes it easier for Trump and his supporters to contest the results should he lose the election.

And the kicker? Musk controls X/Twitter, which, for all its troubles, is still one of the most influential social media platforms in the world and a powerful place for post-election narratives to spread.

4. General roundup of polls. We’ll leave you with some data points to chew on — Harris is leading Trump in the national polls by +3 percentage points, according to the NYT, coming in at 49% while Trump is at 46%. Again, though, that’s the national polls including many voting precincts the candidates aren’t too worried about.

However, the swing states of Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, and Wisconsin are much tighter, all coming in at a margin of 1% (besides Arizona, which is +2 for Trump). RealClearPolitics has the electoral college map favoring Trump, which anyone watching American politics should know is what really matters.

You can listen to our full conversation by subscribing to our podcast feed below!

Correction: During the podcast John said Russia had roughly the 20th largest economy in the world, but most measures actually rank at 11th or 12th.

WHERE IN THE WORLD IS…

• President Joe Biden received his daily briefing at 9AM while the White House will hold a press briefing at 1:30PM, led by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre.

• Vice President Kamala Harris is holding a campaign event in Phoenix, Arizona, as the state marks its second day of early voting.

• Democrat Vice Presidential nominee Tim Walz is headed to Macomb County, Michigan on Friday where he’s expected to focus on auto industry jobs and workers.

• Republican nominee Donald Trump is hosting campaign events in Colorado and Nevada on Friday before heading to Coachella, California on Saturday and Arizona on Sunday.

• Republican Vice Presidential nominee JD Vance is campaigning in Greensboro, North Carolina, hosting a townhall at 6PM EST, before heading to Pennsylvania on Saturday.

WORLD VIEW

Here’s how papers around the world have reported on the US elections over the past week —

🇭🇰 Kamala Harris silent on China, says no to direct talks with Putin: 60 Minutes interview - SCMP, Hong Kong

• Intrigue’s take: Per John’s analysis, Harris might be playing it smart to stay mum on China. Imagine the SCMP headline if Harris had claimed that China was Washington’s biggest threat? As they say in millennial therapy, silence is power.

🇵🇱 Trump appeals for Polish Americans’ votes in interview with Polish TV station - Notes from Poland, Krakow, Poland

• Intrigue’s take:  The race for Pennsylvania is on and a significant subset of that is Polish voters, driving Trump to sit down with a Polish outlet saying no president has done more for Polish people than him.

🇦🇪 Gaza could play significant role in outcome of US presidential election - The National, Dubai, UAE

• Intrigue’s take: Citing research from the Arab American Institute, UAE-backed The National, reported that the two candidates are essentially tied with Trump hovering at 42% and Harris at 41%. However, as John notes, turnout is critical and the same study found that Trump supporters “report a higher likelihood of going out to vote ,” than Harris voters.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Tagging along to Butler, Pennsylvania over the weekend, where former President Donald Trump just barely escaped an assassination attempt, was none other than tech titan Elon Musk. No public figure has backed Trump quite so to the extent that Musk has —wielding his internet clout and pocketbook to warn about a Harris presidency and sing Trump’s praises.

On the other hand, Harris has gotten Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan to appear at some Democrat campaign events alongside the likes of Bernie Sanders in Texas and others in Chicago and Arizona. It’s drawn ire from the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability Chairman James Comer (Republican, Kentucky) who is pursuing an investigation into Khan’s “politicisation of the FTC.”

WHAT WE’RE READING

• Afghan man arrested in alleged US election day attack plot

• Book Revives Questions About Trump’s Ties to Putin

• Could Polish-American Voters Swing the U.S. Election?

• The Myth That Foreign Policy Doesn’t Matter in Presidential Elections

• Donald Trump would raise US debt by twice as much as Kamala Harris, report finds

POLL