Hi Intriguer. Last week I wrote about three big events that could affect the election: the Middle East conflict, the port strikes, and Hurricane Helene. The port standoff appears to have been resolved yesterday, with shipping companies agreeing to increase port workers’ wages by 62% over the six years. Other issues, including the increasing automation of ports, are still under negotiation, but most logistics experts say that the three-day strike won’t affect supply chains or prices in the short term.

Unfortunately, the situation in the Middle East has escalated over the past week, and Hurricane Helene hit harder than many expected—Kristen and I discussed the potential political impacts of those events in this week’s podcast.

Elsewhere, I found a New York Times article about Trump’s health interesting, while Kristen and I disagree on Melania Trump’s motives behind releasing a video in which she said “there is no room to compromise” on a woman’s right to choose. I can’t imagine Republican strategists are thrilled with the former First Lady, whereas Kristen thinks it’s likely been baked into the strategy (and Melania’s reportedly iron-clad postnup). Or, and most realistically, it’s part of the promo plan to sell her new book.

Lastly, the polls have been largely stable over the last week. Vice President Harris is up by ~3 points nationally and has slim leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, while Trump has slight leads in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. If you’re a Nate Silver fan, his latest update sums up the state of the race thusly: “Harris now leads by 3.4 points in our national polling average and has a 57 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.”

It’s basically all within the margin of error, so I dunno, you could also just flip a coin.

- John Fowler & Kristen Talman in Washington DC

Listen to this week’s podcast here, and if you’re not signed up for our flagship daily newsletter, International Intrigue, you can fix that here!

THE CONVERSATION

A debate that’s…..civil?

A summary of this week’s podcast:

1. Neither vice presidential candidate made much sense on foreign policy during the debate. Given vice presidents are traditionally tasked with domestic issues, we were somewhat surprised the moderators chose to open the debate by asking, “Would you support or oppose a preemptive strike by Israel on Iran?”. Given we’re a foreign policy-focused publication, we’re certainly not complaining!

The Middle East is clearly dominating the mainstream foreign policy conversation right now, but it’s not clear how it will affect the election. According to our sources, the Uncommitted Movement, which tried to pressure the Democrats from the left, is largely dead. But despite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's best efforts, there’s no appetite in the electorate for America to be drawn into a wider war in the Middle East either.

On balance, we think the general perception of ‘chaos around the world’ and persistent stories about "a new Axis of Evil” are more damaging to the Harris campaign, given that she is the incumbent. Trump’s isolationist instincts and his messaging of ‘peace through strength’—when he actually stays on message—has been effective.

2. Walz dropped the ball when asked about his time in China. About halfway through the vice presidential debate, the moderators asked Governor Walz why he had said he was in Tiananmen Square in Beijing during the infamous massacre on June 4 1989, when it had been proven he was not.

Walz embarked on a confusing and irrelevant story about “growing up in a town where you’d ride your bikes until the lights came on”, and called himself a “knucklehead.” His deflections didn’t work and when the moderators followed up requesting an answer to the actual question, the Governor of Minnesota looked like he’d been caught cheering for the Green Bay Packers.

It’s true that Walz has visited China many times and continues to say he “was in Hong Kong and China” during the pro-democracy protests that began in April 1989, so we’ve no idea why Walz wasn’t prepared for this obvious question. He might be wishing he’d done a few more Sunday shows to knock the rust off his media skills.

Had we been advising the governor, our message would have been simple: 1) clarify when you were in China and apologize for confusing the dates; 2) remind people that it was 35 years ago; 3) pivot to telling people that what you do remember about China is how popular protests for freedom were met with tanks and guns, and that’s why we must be clear-eyed about what America stands for in the world.

3. Vance won the debate, but it won’t affect the race. The first few minutes are the most important moments of any political debate, and while Walz seemed nervous, JD Vance projected a calm civility. For undecided voters who aren’t familiar with the other version of Vance—the one who pushes dubious stories to draw media attention to the Trump campaign despite pleas from his own party to stop—they saw a man who likely passed the ‘heartbeat away from the presidency’ test.

In fact, Vance had the debate Republicans wished former President Trump had had a few weeks ago. He was disciplined and repeatedly asked why Vice President Harris hasn’t done more to solve the problems she campaigns on despite having been in power for almost four years. It’s a strong argument if you forget the Vice President doesn’t have the power to change her clothes without a strategist’s approval, much less make major changes to national policies.

With the above said, the debate is unlikely to have changed many minds. We’ve been saying that a lot this election season, and the risk is we miss an event that really does move the needle for undecided voters. It's just hard to imagine this debate being one of those events.

We did note with amusement that Vance referred to Donald Trump as “his running mate,” which is, of course, technically true, but almost certain to have resulted in remotes being hurled at TVs down Mar-a-Lago's way.

4. Hurricane Helene recovery far from over. Hurricane Helene has devastated large swaths of the southeast of the country, flattening entire communities, cutting power lines, and tragically killing at least 191, but likely more. Vice President Harris cut her West Coast fundraising trip short earlier this week and returned to Washington to support relief efforts. The Biden administration has released $10M in federal funding and directed the Department of Defense to deploy 1,000 active duty soldiers to support recovery efforts.

It is uncouth to discuss the political ramifications of such a disaster, so we’ll keep it brief: people will blame the government (and therefore the Biden-Harris administration) for any screwups in the relief efforts. People haven’t forgotten Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and President Bush never really recovered from his administration’s poor handling of that disaster.

Of course, the administration knows this, and it will be near the top of President Biden’s inbox long past election day. Popular Democratic Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina has been a key advocate for Vice President Harris, and he’ll no doubt be in the president's ear to ensure those affected get what they need. We’re sure everyone, regardless of political affiliation, hopes the recovery is as successful as possible.

You can listen to our full conversation by subscribing to our podcast feed below!

WHERE IN THE WORLD IS…

• President Joe Biden received his daily briefing at 11AM while the White House will hold a press briefing at 1:30PM, led by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre.

• Vice President Kamala Harris is on the campaign trail in Detroit and Flint Michigan and will head back to Washington in the evening. On Saturday, the VP is set to travel to North Carolina to survey the impact of Hurricane Helene and be briefed on the ongoing recovery efforts.

• Democrat Vice Presidential nominee Tim Walz is crisscrossing the country this weekend, campaigning in Cleveland and Cincinnati, Ohio, before traveling to the West Coast to fundraise in California and Washington. The campaign has also said he’ll stop in Arizona and Nevada.

• Republican nominee Donald Trump is on the campaign trail in North Carolina and is headed to Butler, Pennsylvania, where his first assassination attempt took place, on Saturday.

• Republican Vice Presidential nominee JD Vance is campaigning in Lindale, Georgia, where he’ll deliver campaign remarks.

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WORLD VIEW

How the world reported on the debate

Here’s how papers around the world reported the CBS-moderated debate between Governor Tim Walz and Ohio Senator JD Vance:

🇨🇳 US vice presidential candidates focus on policy issues in first, only debate - Xinhua, Beijing, China

• Intrigue’s take: When Tim Walz was grilled on his whereabouts during the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests, Chinese censors reportedly pulled coverage of the debate off the air. Of course, none of the Chinese dailies wrote any of this up.

🇫🇷 Civil debate between Vance and Walz ends without a winner  - Le Monde, Paris, France

• Intrigue’s take: While the French paper declared a clear winner after the Trump-Harris debate, Le Monde was much less certain about the VP debate, saying that the conversation was “civil” and had some “some surprising points of agreement.” We suspect the editors of the left-leaning paper are reaching for the copium a little here.

🇬🇧 Post-debate polls show Vance narrowly edging Walz out as the debate winner  - Guardian, London, UK

• Intrigue’s take:  The left-leaning Guardian played it straight.

🇦🇪 US vice presidential debate: Middle East features prominently - The National, Dubai, UAE

• Intrigue’s take: The UAE paper highlighted the candidate’s responses to regional dynamics and wrote that Walz and Vance’s “lengthy responses didn't create many memorable moments”. Both campaigns would probably view that as a win.

TWEET OF THE DAY

Congressman Mike Collins (R, GA-10) set the internet ablaze after sharing an edited photo of Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance that was strongly retouched to enhance the Ohio senator’s jawline, among other cosmetic tweaks. Collins didn’t provide his reasoning for the ‘yassifed’ photo but the internet had a field day nonetheless.

WHAT WE’RE READING

• The Campaigns Need Younger People to Vote. Did the V.P. Debate Help?

• Democrats Abroad spending up to entice American citizens overseas to back Kamala Harris as next US president

• New NATO Chief Rutte Says 'Not Worried' About US Election

• In India, pride in Harris’s run for US presidency, but excitement missing

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