Hi Intriguer. We’re just five days away from the first debate of this election season! Well, technically the second debate, but everyone except Donald Trump and Joe Biden seems to have quietly put that first debate in the “let’s never talk about that unpleasantness again” basket.

Kamala Harris was in New Hampshire this week for a rally—neither Kristen nor I know why, because if New Hampshire is in play, Harris is in big trouble—while Donald Trump has been in the more conventional battleground states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

As the cliche goes, presidential elections are won between Labor Day (this past Monday) and voting Tuesday (5 November). That means you can expect the campaigns to saturate the news cycle even more than they have already as both parties try to reach voters who don’t follow politics quite as closely as we do; aka normal people.

Finally, well-known pollster Nate Silver updated his forecast this week, noting, "The forecast is still in toss-up range, but Trump’s chances of winning are his highest since July 30." The chance that Donald Trump wins the Electoral College (and therefore the election) has increased from 52.4% to 58.2% despite Harris maintaining a lead in the popular vote.

This also serves as your weekly reminder that anyone who tells you they know for certain who’s going to win this election is a very silly sausage!

- John Fowler & Kristen Talman in Washington DC

Listen to this week’s podcast here, and if you’re not signed up for our flagship daily newsletter, International Intrigue, you can fix that here!

The Lede

Three points the Democrats will focus on with China

We continue to tell anyone who’ll listen that China remains America’s single most important foreign policy challenge. Other crises will regularly dominate the news cycle, but if the ‘American century’ is to end, it will be thanks to the beginning of a Chinese one.

This week’s conversation looks at a potential Harris administration’s China policy and picks up where last week’s podcast about a potential Trump administration’s China policy left off.

We almost called this week’s discussion “Old Man Yells at Clouds” as John continued ranting against the lack of scrutiny the Harris campaign is getting from the media and the lack of scrutiny both campaigns are getting on important policy issues. US presidential elections are always about vibes (remember “Hope and Change”?), and this one is no different.

Nevertheless, we continue to try and decipher what each potential president would do on foreign policy, and what that means for the world.

A summary of this week’s podcast:

1. A Chinese spy in the heart of… Albany, New York. Will the arrest of a former top aide to New York Governor Kathy Hochul on federal charges of acting as a foreign agent of the Chinese government affect the presidential race? We’re five days away from the first and possibly only debate between the two presidential candidates, and normally, the news in the week or so before a debate sets the agenda for what gets discussed. So we’re expecting (hoping) the candidates get asked a question on China, if for no other reason than we think voters deserve to know what each candidate’s China policy is. Something like this would do the trick: “Last week, federal agents caught a Chinese spy who had been operating deep inside the American government. The bipartisan Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party has said America must reset its economic relationship with China. As president, do you believe China is America’s biggest rival, and if so, what policies would you put in place to protect America’s economic and security interests?

2. Would Kamala Harris be as tariff-happy as her opponent and her predecessor? The Harris campaign has spent the better part of a month trying to frame Donald Trump’s promise to increase tariffs on China by as much as 60% as a ‘national sales tax’. However, according to the non-partisan Tax Foundation, “The Biden administration has kept most of the Trump administration tariffs in place, and in May 2024, announced tariff hikes on an additional $18 billion of Chinese goods, including semiconductors and electric vehicles.” So while the Harris line on tariffs is clever politics — one-third of Americans say the economy and specifically the high cost of living is the biggest problem facing the country — it’s not clear that her administration would roll back those tariffs. Our best guess is that she won’t stray too far from the Biden administration’s approach to China — she is still his vice president, after all.
   

3. China’s Red Line. During National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan’s recent trip to Beijing, China’s most senior military officer reiterated that Taiwan remains “the uncrossable first red line for China.” In our view, China remains the US’s most important strategic, long-run threat, and the Taiwan question is still the most likely flashpoint of a future conflict. Donald Trump has surrounded himself with advisers who are clear-eyed about China’s desire to take back Taiwan and argue for a policy of more forceful deterrence. Will Harris continue the US’s decades-long policy of strategic ambiguity, or does Nancy Pelosi’s provocative visit to the island two years ago suggest the Democrats are becoming more hawkish? We’ve seen nothing to suggest a future President Harris would move away from strategic ambiguity, but then she’s said almost nothing on the issue. Not to beat a dead horse here, but China really needs to be discussed during the debate!

4. Kamala Harris’s China team. Room-temperature take incoming: If elected, Kamala Harris will staff her China team with senior, well-credentialed China experts. Jokes aside, Harris will want to keep it conventional because, in many ways, the goal will be to maintain the productive, bipartisan consensus on China policy in Washington. In fact, a new cabinet-level ‘China czar’ (or more appropriately, Huángdì 皇帝) might be the perfect job for a Republican so Harris can fulfill her recent promise to appoint a Republican to her cabinet. Former Republican congressman Mike Gallagher for Director of the Office of Strategic Competition with China - you heard it here first, folks!

You can listen to our full conversation in your browser by using the audio player above, or by subscribing to our podcast feed below!

Where in the world is…

• President Joe Biden is headed to Westby, Wisconsin to announce a $7.3B electricity for rural America plan as part of the Inflation Reduction Act.

• Vice President Kamala Harris is headed to Pittsburgh but no official campaign events are on her docket.

• Democrat Vice President Nominee Tim Walz is speaking at a campaign rally in Erie, Pennsylvania.

• Republican nominee Donald Trump is holding a rally in Mosinee, Wisconsin.

• Republican Vice Presidential nominee JD Vance is set to address a campaign event in Arizona at 3 pm.

• Secretary of State Antony Blinken is on travel to Haiti and the Dominican Republic until Friday, September 6th.

China’s View

How China sees Democrats

Enough with how Washington sees Beijing; how does China see the US? We dug up some of the most illustrative headlines to give you a sense for how Beijing, and the Chinese people, see the current Vice President and her bid for the White House.

This is how Chinese papers have reported on Harris over the years -

🇭🇰 Kamala Harris pitches continuity in China-lite first interview since nomination - August 30th, 2024, Hong Kong, HK

• Intrigue’s take: Democratic nominee Harris received considerable flack from the media for declining one-on-one interviews in the weeks after Biden stepped down, but when she sat down for her first ‘big’ interview with CNN last week, SCMP reported that her China policy will continue what Biden has done since 2020.

🇨🇳 Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson's remarks on Harris' running mate pick - August 7th, 2024, Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, China

• Intrigue’s take:  Talk about clickbait, Xinhua runs a headline on what China’s foreign ministry thinks about Harris taking over the reigns for the Democrats, only to write that Beijing has no comment and considers the election a solely domestic matter. Despite Putin endorsing Harris on Thursday, a public preference from senior figures in China is unlikely to emerge.

🇹🇼 Harris to continue Biden's Taiwan policy if elected: U.S. congresswomen - August 15th, 2024, Focus Taiwan, Taipei, Taiwan

• Intrigue’s take: Democratic Party congresswomen Jasmine Crockett, Jill Tokuda, Julia Brownley, and Marilyn Strickland visited Taipei in August, saying that Harris will continue and advance Biden’s policy towards Taiwan. Crockett even said that the US could learn from Taiwan as unlike Taipei, Washington has never elected a female president.

🇨🇳 Harris' Philippine visit aims at ‘fanning flames,’ and it is unkind: Global Times editorial  - November 22, 2022, Global Times, Beijing, China

• Intrigue’s take: During one of Harris’s most high-profile international trips as Vice President, Chinese media slammed her efforts as instigating tensions with China, saying the VP is “stirring up trouble” in the South China Sea in her engagements with Manila.

That’s a wrap?

This week likely marked the last time before the US November elections that high-level American and Chinese officials will engage directly as John Podesta, President Biden’s top climate diplomat, traveled to Beijing. The three-day trip, which began on Tuesday, was set to focus on continued climate engagement between the two countries.

In a potential signal to Xi, Biden's likely final envoy to Beijing holds the same role as his first — John Kerry made the Biden administration’s first official trip to Beijing in 2022, as the previous climate czar. That’s notable because when other officials have found it difficult to get access to Beijing, it seems Biden’s climate diplomats have managed to maintain a line of dialogue between the two countries.

What we’re reading

• Hardened Voter Pessimism About America’s Trajectory Begins to Soften

• China’s BYD Pauses Mexico Factory Plans Until After US Election

• After NY governor says China’s consul general was removed, State Department says ‘there was no expulsion action’

• Republicans and Democrats Still Uncertain about China

• Chinese officials struggle to build ties with Donald Trump’s campaign

• Why can’t Democrats explain themselves on China?

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