Hi Intriguer. We’re going to dive right folks because Kristen and I chatted for longer than usual on this week’s podcast. There’s only four days to go before Americans head out to vote and there’s a lot to discuss.

We hope with every fiber in our beings that when we write to you next week we’ll have a winner. And we hope with those same fibers that whatever the result there’s no violence, limited accusations of fraud (it’s a huge election and there’s bound to be some legitimate grievances!), and a timely concession speech from whoever loses. (And before you think I’m only taking shots at former President Trump, I include Hillary Clinton’s advice to Joe Biden in 2020 that he “should not concede under any circumstances because I think this is going to drag out.”)

Before we dive into this week’s conversation, I’d like to personally invite you all to join us for a post-election webinar on November 12 where Kristen, I and some special guests will unpack “The New President’s Agenda for a Tumultuous World.” Register here.

- John Fowler & Kristen Talman in Washington DC

Listen to this week’s podcast here, and if you’re not signed up for our flagship daily newsletter, International Intrigue, you can fix that here!

THE CONVERSATION

Celebrity endorsements and finalizing teams

A summary of this week’s conversation:

This week’s podcast was a little longer than usual because with only four days to go, there’s a lot to talk about. Here’s a quick summary of our chat, but why not give the full conversation a listen here!

1. The campaigns’ closing arguments

Let’s begin the candidates’ closing pitches. Vice President Harris delivered what we think was her clearest speech yet at a symbolically chosen location - the Ellipse in Washington DC, where Trump gave his infamous January 6th address. Kristen was there to take it all in (it’s just a few steps from her front door), but while the Harris campaign claimed 70,000 attendees, Kristen said it felt like a smaller crowd with measured enthusiasm.

Over in New York, Trump’s speech was unsurprising — he stuck to his talking points — but the media reporting of the event (with unfavorable comments from a comedian about Puerto Rico) will have done him no favors with moderates and undecideds.

In the closing days of the campaign, Trump has doubled down on his core message of American decline, which, for long-time election junkies, remains strange to hear coming from a Republican. It’s not a positive campaign message, but his pitch is a powerful one for a lot of Americans who are struggling with high prices, stagnant wages, an inadequate immigration policy, and the general feeling that life is harder for them than it was for their parents.

P.S. What was President Biden hoping to achieve by calling Trump supporters “garbage”? You can quibble all you like about what he meant by his comments but his inability to effectively execute the Democratic agenda shows why he was replaced on the ticket.

2. Positive economic figures deny Trump fresh ammo

The Commerce Department released fresh economic figures on Wednesday, reporting 2.8% GDP growth and declining inflation. We don’t think the timing of this news helps Harris directly, but it does deny the Trump campaign further ammunition with which to attack the Biden-Harris administration’s economic record, which might have been effective in persuading any remaining moderates.

3. We said it last week, but we’re worried about what happens if Trump loses.

We’re increasingly worried about the post-election period. Trump has already begun making fraud allegations via his social platform Truth Social, and with Elon Musk's Twitter/X platform likely to amplify fraud claims, and potentially more establishment figures willing to support election denial, the risk of post-election instability appears higher than in previous cycles.

4. US foreign policy under Harris

When Kamala Harris became the democratic nominee back at the DNC in August, we assumed she’d largely continue Biden's approach to foreign policy. Nothing we’ve seen or heard since then suggests otherwise. Harris is likely to emphasize predictability, stability, and strong alliances.

Biden’s Ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, is a strong candidate to be Kamala Harris’s Secretary of State, but there are whispers she might tap Delaware Senator Chris Coons or Senator Chris Murphy for the top gig. Murphy is publicly auditioning for the role, having just written a conveniently timed op-ed for the FT on US foreign policy.

Want to look in the know in front of your friends? We’ve heard that former Republican Senator Jeff Flake might be a dark horse for the Secretary of State role — Harris did promise to hire a Republican in her cabinet and politics is supposed to stop at the water’s edge, after all.

5. US foreign policy under Trump

We think the foreign policy in a second Trump administration would look a lot like his first term — skeptical about the value of allies, transactional and willing to make unconventional deals, and somewhat isolationist with an America-first, tariff-centric trade policy. The big difference will be that Trump is far more prepared to win in 2024 than he was in 2016 and is likely to get his administration fully staffed up on day one.

For key foreign policy positions, we expect Trump to prioritize loyalty over traditional foreign policy experience, though potential Secretary of State and National Security Adviser appointees like Rick Grennell and Eldrigde Colby have plenty of both.

We expect that while his governing can feel chaotic for some, the first few months in office will follow what he has pledged on the campaign trail — a lot of focus on China, further talks to end the Ukraine-Russia war and some negotiation around the Middle East conflicts, which will likely allow Netanyahu to push further than the Biden-Harris administration has permitted. JD Vance’s comments about US and Israeli interests not continually overlapping were interesting, but a Trump administration will work closely and comfortably with Netanyahu.

6. Who would the world prefer to win?

We did a lightning tour around the world to see who the leaders of some of the most important countries would prefer to win the election:

• 🇨🇳 China favors stability and predictability over all else and, for that reason, probably favors Harris. That said, they’ll likely see a second Trump administration as a high-risk, high-reward scenario and will try to get into his good graces early in an effort to water down Trump’s broadly unpopular tariff policy.

• 🇮🇳 India will be able to work with either Harris or Trump. Harris’s Indian heritage has even sparked a fondness for her among some Indians. Modi, however, brooks no criticism of his government and its often heavy-handed domestic politics. For that reason, we think Modi would rather work with the more transactional Trump over the more principled Harris, but not much will change in the US-India relationship either way.

• 🇪🇺 Europe is begging, wishing, and praying for a Harris victory. She is a strong supporter of NATO, the EU, and Ukraine, and her administration would likely work with EU regulators on pressing issues of AI, tech and climate. Trump, on the other hand, disdains NATO and is skeptical of European free-riding in all forms. His Silicon Valley backers will be pushing Trump to fight EU tech regulations tooth and nail, and he might even hit the EU with tariffs should the mood strike. On Ukraine, the former president has repeatedly said he’ll end the war within 24 hours of being elected, presumably to Russia’s satisfaction. With all that said, if you squint, Trump’s dose of medicine might make Europe less dependent on the US in the long run, which Brussels might eventually be thankful for, but in the short run they’re all pulling for Harris (Hungary’s Viktor Orban excluded).

• 🇺🇦 Ukraine’s preference for Harris is self-explanatory though the Ukrainian government has said it will work with whoever is elected. If we’re being contrarian, a Trump presidency might allow Zelenskyy to end Russia’s brutal war while being able to say he had no choice. We’re not saying that’s a good thing for Ukraine overall (a Trump-brokered deal would almost certainly give Ukrainian land to Russia) but it’s hard to see how the war ends otherwise.

• 🇹🇼 Taiwan probably favors Harris for the same reasons as Beijing does — stability and predictability. Senior Trump adviser Eldridge Colby has repeatedly said that the US should put more of its military resources into defending Taiwan, but Trump’s transactional, deal making nature will have Taipei concerned that he might use Taiwan as bargaining chip in a broader deal with China.

• 🇯🇵 Japan is pretty happy with the geopolitical status quo in Asia right now: it is a core member of the Quad, its relationship with the US is the strongest it’s been in years, and a mutual distrust of China has led to close working relationships with South Korea, the Philippines and other regional players. For that reason, it is probably pulling for more of the same (i.e a Harris victory), but Japan’s new and mercurial Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is just the type of politician to forge a close personal relationship with Trump.

7. So, reputations on the table, who do we think is going to win?

Kristen: I’m predicting a Trump victory. But I also believe there’s a tendency in Washington to say he’s going to win as almost a safe pick, given his base’s vocal support. I will concede though that a loud base doesn’t always translate to a win at the ballot box. Trump’s need to coalesce with pro-Christian, anti-abortion groups to win over parts of the Republican party will hurt him, as it did the Republicans during the primaries in 2022. But as an East Coaster, every time I travel the country, I see Trump signs and hear from Trump voters so I expect the turn-out will be high for the 45th president.

John: We finally disagree on something! I think Harris is going to win, for a few reasons. The reality is that Trump has hurt Republicans in elections ever since 2016. And this time, unlike in 2016, I expect women voters to be decisive. I also don’t think the polling is worth much of anything either way, but if you want me to make a case based on polls I’d say I don’t think Trump supporters are being under-polled to the same extent they were in 2016 or 2020 — folks are no longer embarrassed to say they’re voting for Trump. I have her squeaking out a 281-257 win by taking Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania and North Carolina but losing Arizona, Wisconsin and Georgia. Honestly, I just hope one of them wins by so much that there’s no disputing the result.

This summary reflects the longer discussion John and Kristen had recorded yesterday, October 31. Give it a listen here!

WHERE IN THE WORLD IS…

• President Joe Biden is delivering remarks on his support for unions in Philadelphia before heading to Wilmington, Delaware in the evening.

• Vice President Kamala Harris is holding a campaign rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where she will be joined by rapper Cardi B.

• Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Tim Walz is in Michigan, holding campaign events in Detroit, Flint and Traverse City.

• Republican nominee Donald Trump is holding a rally in Warren, Michigan and Milwaukee, Wisconsin, about 7 miles away from Harris’s.

• Republican Vice Presidential nominee JD Vance is holding campaign events in Portage, Michigan and Selma, North Carolina.

• Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in DC where he will deliver remarks at the State Department’s Diwali reception.

WORLD VIEW

As the days before the election dwindle, the race to snag up any and all votes has dwindled down to key districts and diaspora groups. Here’s how each region across the world is expected to see the results —

🌎 Central America Has a Lot Riding on the U.S. Presidential Election - VIEW FROM LATAM

• Intrigue’s take: World Politics Review writes that a Trump victory might create a vacuum for China and Russia in Central America. US ties with the region could weaken due to the former president’s threats of mass deportations, which in turn would put strain on Central American economies and stability. The Harris campaign will likely continue Biden’s approach which saw more diplomatic channels to decrease immigration.

🌍 ‘Bitter medicine’: Why some EU officials quietly yearn for Trump - VIEW FROM BRUSSELS, EUROPE

• Intrigue’s take:  While European capitals are by and large seen to favour Vice President Harris as the next President, some officials have signaled that a Trump victory could push them to fasten the pace on building up the bloc’s defense capability and carve its own policy aside from Washington’s. Such thinking would be music to the sound of Republican advisor Colby’s ears, who, while at the RNC, said a Trump victory would be a “gift” to Europe, allowing the Brussels bubble to ween itself off of Foggy Bottom directives.

🌍 Why the Gulf States Are Likely Backing Trump - VIEW FROM THE MIDDLE EAST

• Intrigue’s take: Interesting reporting has emerged over the past few days that shows one cannot view the Middle East as a monolith — Gulf heavyweights like the UAE and Saudi Arabia might just be pleased with the return of Trump, a column in Foreign Policy proclaims, while a recent poll by MetroPoll in Turkey showed that voters there also think the 45th president would be better back in the helm. For Palestinians, the choice is between bad and worse, as both candidates are largely pro-Israel. As for Tel Aviv? Trump polls way ahead.

🌍 Whether Harris or Trump, the prospect of a direct China-US conflict is unlikely - VIEW FROM ASIA

• Intrigue’s take: Much of the reporting in Beijing-backed media has projected calm, shaking off concerns of a Washington-Beijing confrontation and choosing an emotionless approach to their reporting. Our resident former Australian diplomat and China expert, John, says that China wants stability. Xi probably expects more tariffs either way, but would rather avoid the chaos of a Trump presidency.

POLL OF THE DAY

The road to winning the electoral college is a long and winding one, throwing even the northeast state of New Hampshire into the mix as polls show Trump up and Harris down in the most conservative of the northern states. So where do both stand to carve a way out to victory?

For Trump, winning Arizona and Nevada will be critical to making headwinds. Winning Georgia and Michigan too, could get him just about across the line.

Harris has spent significant time in Georgia trying to muster up any and all votes in a state where the governor and Trump don’t always get along, despite same party lines. Walz is fighting hard for Michigan, campaigning across the state today (Friday). The campaign even dispatched Bill Clinton.

WHAT WE’RE READING

• US inflation is down. Could it still be Kamala Harris’s downfall?

• How the U.S. Election Matters for the Rest of the World

• The rest of the world, too, anxiously awaits U.S. election results

• What the US election outcome means for Ukraine, Gaza and world conflict

• Political violence in US could surge after elections, experts warn

POLL